Bet with MINO CASINO →Port Vale are at home to Accrington ST on 14 November 2026 · 15:00 at Vale Park (Stoke on Trent). Our favourites are Port Vale (47%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Port Vale vs Accrington ST: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Port Vale are 18th with 15 points after 12 matches (4W 3D 5L), whereas Accrington ST are 9th with 19 points (4W 7D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Port Vale have scored 0.8 and conceded 1.2 goals per game on average in this competition; Accrington ST average 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Port Vale: 4W 3D 5L, goals 10–14; Accrington ST: 4W 7D 3L, goals 23–17.
What to expect
Port Vale should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.3%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Accrington ST are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.80), and our probability for it is 53%. We estimate both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Prediction: key points
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Port Vale 10–14, Accrington ST 23–17.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 47%.
- Absent: Port Vale 0, Accrington ST 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 51%, best available odds 1.85). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Port Vale are missing: no absences. Accrington ST are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Port Vale vs Accrington ST: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.00 | 3.45 | 3.85 |
| Market average | 1.95 | 3.32 | 3.75 |
| Lowest odds | 1.91 | 3.20 | 3.68 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 1.30 | 70.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 1.99 | 47.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 1.78 | 52.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.50 | 3.37 | 27.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.85 | 1.82 | 50.7% |
| BTTS – no | 1.90 | 1.87 | 49.3% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 08:20. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 8.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Port Vale 1–1 Accrington ST, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Port Vale 18th (15 points), Accrington ST 9th (19 points).
- Form in the competition: Port Vale 4W 3D 5L (10:14), Accrington ST 4W 7D 3L (23:17).
- Absences: Port Vale 0, Accrington ST 0.
Who will win Port Vale vs Accrington ST?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Port Vale vs Accrington ST: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Most likely correct scores
Port Vale vs Accrington ST: who is missing
Port Vale
- No reported absences
Accrington ST
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Port Vale vs Accrington ST: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | 10-1-3 | 25:15 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | 7-5-1 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | 5-7-1 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe | 14 | 5-7-2 | 17:17 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | 6-3-5 | 23:25 | 21 |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:18 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:21 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | 5-5-4 | 20:19 | 20 |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 14 | 4-7-3 | 23:17 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | 5-4-5 | 24:21 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | 4-7-3 | 19:17 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | 5-4-5 | 11:9 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | 5-4-5 | 15:17 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | 4-6-4 | 20:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | 5-3-6 | 17:22 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4-5-5 | 18:18 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5-1-8 | 17:23 | 16 |
| 18 | Port Vale | 12 | 4-3-5 | 10:14 | 15 |
| 19 |  Rochdale | 14 | 4-3-7 | 17:26 | 15 |
| 20 |  Northampton | 12 | 3-5-4 | 9:9 | 14 |
| 21 |  Oldham | 13 | 3-3-7 | 14:19 | 12 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | 2-6-6 | 18:25 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | 2-6-5 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | 2-3-7 | 13:21 | 9 |
Recent matches
Port Vale
Home and away
Port Vale vs Accrington ST: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Port ValeWLDWWAccrington STDWDWDReturns calculator
Port Vale vs Accrington ST: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Port Vale vs Accrington ST?
Our result tip is Port Vale to win (odds 2.00), and our goals tip is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.80). The safer pick is Port Vale or draw (1X).
Who will win Port Vale vs Accrington ST?
Our probabilities: Port Vale to win 47%, a draw 28%, Accrington ST to win 25%.
What time and where is kick-off?
14 November 2026, kick-off at 15:00, at Vale Park, Stoke on Trent.
Who will be missing?
Port Vale: no absences. Accrington ST: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 47% (odds 2.00); under 2.5 goals is at 53% (odds 1.80).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 51% probability (odds 1.85).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.3%); after that come 1–0 (11.7%) and 2–1 (9.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.