Bet with MINO CASINO →Monza v Fiorentina is on 23 November 2026 · 17:30 at U-Power Stadium (Monza). We think Fiorentina (51%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Monza vs Fiorentina: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.96 | 4.06 | 1.94 |
| Market average | 3.87 | 3.90 | 1.89 |
| Lowest odds | 3.80 | 3.70 | 1.85 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.17 | 79.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.68 | 1.64 | 58.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.39 | 2.33 | 41.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.62 | 2.53 | 37.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.56 | 59.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.32 | 2.29 | 40.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:10. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Monza 1–1 Fiorentina, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Monza 18th (7 points), Fiorentina 16th (8 points).
- Absences: Monza 0, Fiorentina 0.
Who will win Monza vs Fiorentina?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Monza vs Fiorentina: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Most likely correct scores
Monza vs Fiorentina: who is missing
Monza
- No reported absences
Fiorentina
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Monza vs Fiorentina: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 | Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Monza
Home and away
Monza vs Fiorentina: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Monza are 18th with 7 points after 10 matches (2W 1D 7L), whereas Fiorentina are 16th with 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
What to expect
Fiorentina should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.53), and our probability for it is 63%. We estimate both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 59%.
- Absent: Monza 0, Fiorentina 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 59%, best available odds 1.57). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Monza are missing: no absences. Fiorentina are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
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Monza vs Fiorentina: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Monza vs Fiorentina?
Our result tip is Fiorentina to win (odds 1.94), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.53). The safer pick is Draw or Fiorentina (X2).
Who will win Monza vs Fiorentina?
Our probabilities: Monza to win 25%, a draw 25%, Fiorentina to win 51%.
What time and where is kick-off?
23 November 2026, kick-off at 17:30, at U-Power Stadium, Monza.
Who will be missing?
Monza: no absences. Fiorentina: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 59% (odds 1.68); under 2.5 goals is at 41% (odds 2.39).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 59% probability (odds 1.57).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.8%); after that come 1–2 (9.7%) and 0–1 (9.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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