Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Monza meet Napoli on 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadio Brianteo (Monza), refereed by Giovanni Ayroldi. Napoli (56%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Monza vs Napoli: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Monza are 18th with 7 points after 10 matches (2W 1D 7L), whereas Napoli are 8th with 14 points (4W 2D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Monza have scored 1.9 and conceded 2.3 goals per game on average in this competition; Napoli average 1.6 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Monza: 2W 1D 5L, goals 15–18; Napoli: 3W 2D 3L, goals 13–10.
- Head to head. In their 7 meetings so far, Monza have 1 win, Napoli have 5 wins and 1 draw have been recorded; the goals stand at 5–15.
What to expect
Napoli should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.4%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.49), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 7; Monza 1 win, 1 draw, Napoli 5 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.9 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Monza 15–18, Napoli 13–10.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 57%.
- Absent: Monza 4, Napoli 6.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 2.5 goals (probability 57%, best available odds 1.71). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Monza are missing: M. Folorunsho, Y. Maye, M. Pessina, J. Ziolkowski. Napoli are without: Alisson Santos, B. Badiashile, A. Buongiorno, David Neres, C. Favasuli, L. Spinazzola. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Monza vs Napoli: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 4.89 | 4.06 | 1.71 |
| Market average | 4.78 | 4.04 | 1.71 |
| Lowest odds | 4.70 | 4.00 | 1.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.20 | 78.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 1.69 | 56.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.24 | 2.21 | 43.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.69 | 35.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.66 | 55.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.11 | 2.11 | 44.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 28/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Monza 1–1 Napoli, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Monza 18th (7 points), Napoli 8th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Monza 2W 1D 5L (15:18), Napoli 3W 2D 3L (13:10).
- H2H: 7 matches: Monza 1W 1D 5L, goals 5–15.
- Absences: Monza 4, Napoli 6.
Who will win Monza vs Napoli?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Monza vs Napoli: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Monza vs Napoli: who is missing
Monza
- M. Folorunshoabsence · will miss the match
- Y. Mayemuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Pessinaknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Ziolkowskifoot injury · will miss the match
Napoli
- Alisson Santosmuscle injury · will miss the match
- B. Badiashileinjury · will miss the match
- A. Buongiornoknee injury · will miss the match
- David Neresthigh injury · will miss the match
- C. Favasulithigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Spinazzolathigh injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Monza vs Napoli: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 | Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 | Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Monza
Home and away
Monza vs Napoli: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
MonzaLLLWLNapoliLWDLWMonza vs Napoli: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Monza vs Napoli: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Monza vs Napoli?
Napoli -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Under 3.5 goals (1.49).
Who will win Monza vs Napoli?
Our probabilities: Monza to win 20%, a draw 24%, Napoli to win 56%.
What time and where is kick-off?
28 October 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Stadio Brianteo, Monza. Referee: Giovanni Ayroldi.
Who will be missing?
Monza: M. Folorunsho, Y. Maye, M. Pessina, J. Ziolkowski. Napoli: Alisson Santos, B. Badiashile, A. Buongiorno, David Neres, C. Favasuli, L. Spinazzola. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 57% (odds 1.71); under 2.5 goals is at 43% (odds 2.24).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 56% probability (odds 1.67).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.4%); after that come 0–1 (9.9%) and 1–2 (9.9%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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