Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Fiorentina v Atalanta is on 29 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence); Federico La Penna takes charge. We think it is an even game. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.47 | 3.86 | 3.10 |
| Market average | 2.35 | 3.68 | 2.84 |
| Lowest odds | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.12 | 83.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.46 | 64.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.68 | 35.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.10 | 45.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.37 | 68.0% |
| BTTS – no | 3.10 | 2.91 | 32.0% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 29/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Fiorentina 16th (8 points), Atalanta 13th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Fiorentina 1W 1D 6L (9:19), Atalanta 3W 1D 4L (14:15).
- H2H: 37 matches: Fiorentina 17W 10D 10L, goals 59–51.
- Absences: Fiorentina 5, Atalanta 8.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: who is missing
Fiorentina
- A. Attaabsence · will miss the match
- F. Parisiknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Pongracicmuscle injury · will miss the match
- R. Sottilback injury · will miss the match
- L. Ranieriabsence · doubtful
Atalanta
- R. Bellanovathigh injury · will miss the match
- I. Hienmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Kessiecalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Kolasinacthigh injury · will miss the match
- O. Kossounouthigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Raspadorithigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Scamaccathigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Sulemanaknee injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Fiorentina
Home and away
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Fiorentina are 16th with 8 points after 10 matches (2W 2D 6L), whereas Atalanta are 13th with 11 points (3W 2D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Fiorentina have scored 1.1 and conceded 2.4 goals per game on average in this competition; Atalanta average 1.8 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Fiorentina: 1W 1D 6L, goals 9–19; Atalanta: 3W 1D 4L, goals 14–15.
- Head to head. In their 37 meetings so far, Fiorentina have 17 wins, Atalanta have 10 wins and 10 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 59–51.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–2, about 4 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.57), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 37; Fiorentina 17 wins, 10 draws, Atalanta 10 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.0 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Fiorentina 9–19, Atalanta 14–15.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 65%.
- Absent: Fiorentina 5, Atalanta 8.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 55%, best available odds 1.84). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Fiorentina are missing: A. Atta, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic, R. Sottil, L. Ranieri. Atalanta are without: R. Bellanova, I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, G. Raspadori, G. Scamacca, K. Sulemana. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
FiorentinaWDLLLAtalantaLDDLWFiorentina vs Atalanta: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our result tip is Fiorentina or draw (1X) (odds 1.48), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.57). The safer pick is Fiorentina or draw (1X).
Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our probabilities: Fiorentina to win 41%, a draw 26%, Atalanta to win 34%.
What time and where is kick-off?
29 October 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence. Referee: Federico La Penna.
Who will be missing?
Fiorentina: A. Atta, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic, R. Sottil, L. Ranieri. Atalanta: R. Bellanova, I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, G. Raspadori, G. Scamacca, K. Sulemana. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 65% (odds 1.57); under 2.5 goals is at 35% (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 68% probability (odds 1.40).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.2%); after that come 2–1 (8.7%) and 1–2 (7.9%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.