Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sassuolo are at home to Fiorentina on 2 November 2026 · 17:30 at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia), with Matteo Marcenaro as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Sassuolo are 17th with 8 points after 10 matches (2W 2D 6L), whereas Fiorentina are 16th with 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Sassuolo have scored 1.6 and conceded 2.4 goals per game on average in this competition; Fiorentina average 1.2 scored and 2.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sassuolo: 2W 2D 5L, goals 14–22; Fiorentina: 1W 2D 6L, goals 11–21.
- Head to head. In their 24 meetings so far, Sassuolo have 8 wins, Fiorentina have 9 wins and 7 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 34–40.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–2, about 4 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.4%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.45), and our probability for it is 66%. We estimate both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 24; Sassuolo 8 wins, 7 draws, Fiorentina 9 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.1 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Sassuolo 14–22, Fiorentina 11–21.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 63%.
- Absent: Sassuolo 5, Fiorentina 5.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 2.5 goals (probability 63%, best available odds 1.57). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Sassuolo are missing: D. Boloca, I. Kone, F. Leysen, Y. Paz, K. Thorstvedt. Fiorentina are without: A. Atta, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic, L. Ranieri, R. Sottil. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.92 | 3.80 | 2.45 |
| Market average | 2.80 | 3.64 | 2.39 |
| Lowest odds | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.14 | 82.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.50 | 62.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.68 | 2.53 | 37.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.26 | 42.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.45 | 1.42 | 65.6% |
| BTTS – no | 3.00 | 2.70 | 34.4% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 2/11/26, 16:22. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Sassuolo 1–1 Fiorentina, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Sassuolo 17th (8 points), Fiorentina 16th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Sassuolo 2W 2D 5L (14:22), Fiorentina 1W 2D 6L (11:21).
- H2H: 24 matches: Sassuolo 8W 7D 9L, goals 34–40.
- Absences: Sassuolo 5, Fiorentina 5.
Who will win Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: who is missing
Sassuolo
- D. Bolocamuscle injury · will miss the match
- I. Konebroken leg · will miss the match
- F. Leysenknee injury · will miss the match
- Y. Pazknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Thorstvedtred card · will miss the match
Fiorentina
- A. Attaabsence · will miss the match
- F. Parisiknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Pongracicmuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Ranieriabsence · will miss the match
- R. Sottilback injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Sassuolo
Home and away
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
SassuoloLLLLDFiorentinaWDLLLSassuolo vs Fiorentina: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Our result tip is Draw or Fiorentina (X2) (odds 1.47), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.45). The safer pick is Draw or Fiorentina (X2).
Who will win Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Our probabilities: Sassuolo to win 34%, a draw 26%, Fiorentina to win 40%.
What time and where is kick-off?
2 November 2026, kick-off at 17:30, at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia. Referee: Matteo Marcenaro.
Who will be missing?
Sassuolo: D. Boloca, I. Kone, F. Leysen, Y. Paz, K. Thorstvedt. Fiorentina: A. Atta, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic, L. Ranieri, R. Sottil. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 63% (odds 1.57); under 2.5 goals is at 37% (odds 2.68).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 66% probability (odds 1.45).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.4%); after that come 1–2 (8.6%) and 2–1 (8.1%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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