Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Monaco are at home to Lille on 25 October 2026 · 14:00 at Stade Louis II (Monaco), with François Letexier as the referee. Our favourites are Monaco (49%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Monaco vs Lille: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.04 | 3.65 | 4.10 |
| Market average | 1.97 | 3.52 | 3.91 |
| Lowest odds | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.22 | 77.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.81 | 1.74 | 54.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.11 | 45.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.74 | 34.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.61 | 57.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.21 | 42.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 25/10/26, 13:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Monaco 1–1 Lille, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Monaco 7th (15 points), Lille 2nd (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Monaco 4W 2D 1L (10:6), Lille 4W 2D 1L (10:5).
- H2H: 30 matches: Monaco 11W 9D 10L, goals 39–33.
- Absences: Monaco 2, Lille 3.
Who will win Monaco vs Lille?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Monaco vs Lille: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Monaco vs Lille: who is missing
Monaco
- S. Idumbogroin injury · will miss the match
- E. Diermuscle injury · doubtful
Lille
- H. Igamaneknee injury · will miss the match
- T. Santosknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Uedafoot injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Monaco vs Lille: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 | Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Monaco
Home and away
Monaco vs Lille: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Monaco are 7th with 15 points after 9 matches (4W 3D 2L), whereas Lille are 2nd with 18 points (5W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Monaco have scored 1.4 and conceded 0.9 goals per game on average in this competition; Lille average 1.4 scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Monaco: 4W 2D 1L, goals 10–6; Lille: 4W 2D 1L, goals 10–5.
- Head to head. In their 30 meetings so far, Monaco have 11 wins, Lille have 10 wins and 9 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 39–33.
What to expect
Monaco should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.3%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), and our probability for it is 66%. We estimate both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 30; Monaco 11 wins, 9 draws, Lille 10 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.4 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Monaco 10–6, Lille 10–5.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 55%.
- Absent: Monaco 2, Lille 3.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 58%, best available odds 1.70). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Monaco are missing: S. Idumbo, E. Dier. Lille are without: H. Igamane, T. Santos, A. Ueda. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Monaco vs Lille: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
MonacoLDLDWLilleWDDWLMonaco vs Lille: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Monaco vs Lille: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Monaco vs Lille?
Our result tip is Monaco to win (odds 2.04), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47). The safer pick is Monaco or draw (1X).
Who will win Monaco vs Lille?
Our probabilities: Monaco to win 49%, a draw 27%, Lille to win 24%.
What time and where is kick-off?
25 October 2026, kick-off at 14:00, at Stade Louis II, Monaco. Referee: François Letexier.
Who will be missing?
Monaco: S. Idumbo, E. Dier. Lille: H. Igamane, T. Santos, A. Ueda. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 55% (odds 1.81); under 2.5 goals is at 45% (odds 2.18).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 58% probability (odds 1.70).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.3%); after that come 1–0 (9.8%) and 2–1 (9.6%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.