Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lille v Lens is on 30 October 2026 · 20:05 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Lille); Jérôme Brisard takes charge. We think it is an even game. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Lille vs Lens: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Lille are 2nd with 18 points after 9 matches (5W 3D 1L), whereas Lens are 9th with 13 points (4W 1D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Lille have scored 1.4 and conceded 0.8 goals per game on average in this competition; Lens average 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lille: 4W 3D 1L, goals 11–6; Lens: 4W 1D 3L, goals 16–12.
- Head to head. In their 18 meetings so far, Lille have 11 wins, Lens have 3 wins and 4 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 31–14.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.7%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.78), and our probability for it is 54%. We estimate both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 18; Lille 11 wins, 4 draws, Lens 3 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.5 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Lille 11–6, Lens 16–12.
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 48%.
- Absent: Lille 4, Lens 6.
Alternative tip: Lille or draw (1X)
Alternative pick: Lille or draw (1X) (probability 65%, best available odds 1.50). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Lille are missing: H. Igamane, T. Nianzou, T. Santos, A. Ueda. Lens are without: N. Celik, J. Chavez, O. Edouard, I. Ganiou, M. Nawrocki, A. Sima. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Lille vs Lens: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.76 | 3.37 | 2.83 |
| Market average | 2.64 | 3.27 | 2.71 |
| Lowest odds | 2.38 | 3.10 | 2.56 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.35 | 1.31 | 71.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 1.99 | 47.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.02 | 1.83 | 52.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.64 | 3.48 | 27.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.78 | 1.74 | 53.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 2.01 | 46.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 30/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Lille 1–1 Lens, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Lille 2nd (18 points), Lens 9th (13 points).
- Form in the competition: Lille 4W 3D 1L (11:6), Lens 4W 1D 3L (16:12).
- H2H: 18 matches: Lille 11W 4D 3L, goals 31–14.
- Absences: Lille 4, Lens 6.
Who will win Lille vs Lens?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Lille vs Lens: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Lille vs Lens: who is missing
Lille
- H. Igamaneknee injury · will miss the match
- T. Nianzoured card · will miss the match
- T. Santosknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Uedafoot injury · will miss the match
Lens
- N. Celiknot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Chavezabsence · will miss the match
- O. Edouardgroin injury · will miss the match
- I. Ganiouknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Nawrockiknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Simamuscle injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Lille vs Lens: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 | Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Lille
Home and away
Lille vs Lens: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
LilleWDDWLLensLWWWLLille vs Lens: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Lille vs Lens: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Lille vs Lens?
Under 2.5 goals (2.02); Lille or draw (1X) (1.50).
Who will win Lille vs Lens?
Our probabilities: Lille to win 36%, a draw 29%, Lens to win 35%.
What time and where is kick-off?
30 October 2026, kick-off at 20:05, at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille. Referee: Jérôme Brisard.
Who will be missing?
Lille: H. Igamane, T. Nianzou, T. Santos, A. Ueda. Lens: N. Celik, J. Chavez, O. Edouard, I. Ganiou, M. Nawrocki, A. Sima. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 48% (odds 2.08); under 2.5 goals is at 52% (odds 2.02).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 54% probability (odds 1.78).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.7%); after that come 1–0 (10.2%) and 0–1 (9.8%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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