Bet with MINO CASINO →Lille are at home to Lyon on 21 November 2026 · 19:45 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Lille). We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Lille vs Lyon: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Lille are 2nd with 18 points after 9 matches (5W 3D 1L), whereas Lyon are 3rd with 17 points (5W 2D 2L).
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.6%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.45), and our probability for it is 66%. We estimate both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 55%.
- Absent: Lille 0, Lyon 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 59%, best available odds 1.62). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Lille are missing: no absences. Lyon are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Lille vs Lyon: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.52 | 3.75 | 2.85 |
| Market average | 2.42 | 3.58 | 2.78 |
| Lowest odds | 2.35 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.22 | 77.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 1.75 | 54.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.13 | 45.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.86 | 2.80 | 33.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.27 | 41.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:21. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.2%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Lille 1–1 Lyon, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lille 2nd (18 points), Lyon 3rd (17 points).
- Absences: Lille 0, Lyon 0.
Who will win Lille vs Lyon?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Lille vs Lyon: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Most likely correct scores
Lille vs Lyon: who is missing
Lille
- No reported absences
Lyon
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Lille vs Lyon: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 | Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
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Lille vs Lyon: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Lille vs Lyon?
Lille +0 (Asian handicap) (1.87); Under 3.5 goals (1.45).
Who will win Lille vs Lyon?
Our probabilities: Lille to win 39%, a draw 27%, Lyon to win 34%.
What time and where is kick-off?
21 November 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille.
Who will be missing?
Lille: no absences. Lyon: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 55% (odds 1.79); under 2.5 goals is at 45% (odds 2.18).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 59% probability (odds 1.62).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.6%); after that come 2–1 (8.7%) and 1–0 (8.3%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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