Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Paris Saint Germain meet Lyon on 26 October 2026 · 19:30 at Parc des Princes (Paris), refereed by Jérôme Brisard. Paris Saint Germain (72%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.36 | 6.09 | 9.00 |
| Market average | 1.32 | 5.75 | 8.36 |
| Lowest odds | 1.29 | 5.00 | 7.34 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 86.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.37 | 1.34 | 69.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.29 | 3.13 | 30.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.97 | 1.90 | 50.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.58 | 59.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.27 | 41.0% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 26/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.2%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Lyon, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Paris Saint Germain 1st (20 points), Lyon 3rd (17 points).
- Form in the competition: Paris Saint Germain 4W 2D 1L (14:9), Lyon 4W 2D 1L (13:5).
- H2H: 42 matches: Paris Saint Germain 28W 6D 8L, goals 90–43.
- Absences: Paris Saint Germain 5, Lyon 6.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: who is missing
Paris Saint Germain
- O. Dembelethigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Kvaratskheliaknee injury · will miss the match
- Marquinhosthigh injury · will miss the match
- N. Mendesmuscle injury · will miss the match
- A. Longoniinjury · doubtful
Lyon
- S. Kangoconcussion · will miss the match
- K. Nakamurared card · will miss the match
- L. Opendaabsence · will miss the match
- M. Ouedraogoknee injury · will miss the match
- P. Sulcknee injury · will miss the match
- N. Tagliaficomuscle injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 | Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Paris Saint Germain
Home and away
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Paris Saint Germain are 1st with 20 points after 9 matches (6W 2D 1L), whereas Lyon are 3rd with 17 points (5W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Paris Saint Germain have scored 2.0 and conceded 1.3 goals per game on average in this competition; Lyon average 1.9 scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Paris Saint Germain: 4W 2D 1L, goals 14–9; Lyon: 4W 2D 1L, goals 13–5.
- Head to head. In their 42 meetings so far, Paris Saint Germain have 28 wins, Lyon have 8 wins and 6 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 90–43.
What to expect
Paris Saint Germain should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 3–1, about 4 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.62), and our probability for it is 59%. We estimate both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 42; Paris Saint Germain 28 wins, 6 draws, Lyon 8 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.2 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Paris Saint Germain 14–9, Lyon 13–5.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 70%.
- Absent: Paris Saint Germain 5, Lyon 6.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 59%, best available odds 1.62). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Paris Saint Germain are missing: O. Dembele, K. Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos, N. Mendes, A. Longoni. Lyon are without: S. Kango, K. Nakamura, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc, N. Tagliafico. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Paris Saint GermainWWWWWLyonWLWLWParis Saint Germain vs Lyon: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Our result tip is Paris Saint Germain to win (odds 1.36), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.62). The safer pick is Paris Saint Germain or draw (1X).
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Our probabilities: Paris Saint Germain to win 72%, a draw 17%, Lyon to win 11%.
What time and where is kick-off?
26 October 2026, kick-off at 19:30, at Parc des Princes, Paris. Referee: Jérôme Brisard.
Who will be missing?
Paris Saint Germain: O. Dembele, K. Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos, N. Mendes, A. Longoni. Lyon: S. Kango, K. Nakamura, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc, N. Tagliafico. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 70% (odds 1.37); under 2.5 goals is at 30% (odds 3.29).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 59% probability (odds 1.62).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.2%); after that come 2–0 (9.2%) and 3–1 (8.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.