Bet with MINO CASINO →Lens meet Marseille on 8 November 2026 · 19:45 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens). Lens (46%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Lens vs Marseille: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Lens are 9th with 13 points after 9 matches (4W 1D 4L), whereas Marseille are 6th with 15 points (5W 0D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Lens have scored 1.8 and conceded 1.4 goals per game on average in this competition; Marseille average 2.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lens: 4W 1D 4L, goals 16–13; Marseille: 5W 0D 4L, goals 20–13.
- Head to head. In their 17 meetings so far, Lens have 7 wins, Marseille have 8 wins and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 18–28.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–2, about 4 goals combined, and 1–1 (9.7%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 17; Lens 7 wins, 2 draws, Marseille 8 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.7 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Lens 16–13, Marseille 20–13.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 65%.
- Absent: Lens 0, Marseille 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 56%, best available odds 1.76). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Lens are missing: no absences. Marseille are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Lens vs Marseille: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.12 | 4.16 | 3.30 |
| Market average | 2.06 | 3.86 | 3.13 |
| Lowest odds | 2.00 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.12 | 83.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.45 | 64.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.68 | 35.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.23 | 2.16 | 44.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.41 | 66.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.74 | 34.0% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:21. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Lens 1–1 Marseille, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Lens 9th (13 points), Marseille 6th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: Lens 4W 1D 4L (16:13), Marseille 5W 0D 4L (20:13).
- H2H: 17 matches: Lens 7W 2D 8L, goals 18–28.
- Absences: Lens 0, Marseille 0.
Who will win Lens vs Marseille?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Lens vs Marseille: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Lens vs Marseille: who is missing
Lens
- No reported absences
Marseille
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Lens vs Marseille: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 | Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 | Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Lens
Home and away
Lens vs Marseille: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
LensLWWWLMarseilleWWWWLLens vs Marseille: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Lens vs Marseille: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Lens vs Marseille?
Draw or Marseille (X2) (1.81); Over 2.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Lens vs Marseille?
Our probabilities: Lens to win 46%, a draw 24%, Marseille to win 30%.
What time and where is kick-off?
8 November 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens.
Who will be missing?
Lens: no absences. Marseille: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 65% (odds 1.50); under 2.5 goals is at 35% (odds 2.75).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 66% probability (odds 1.44).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (9.7%); after that come 2–1 (9.0%) and 1–2 (7.3%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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