Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lens v Paris FC is on 24 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens); M. Vernice takes charge. We think it is an even game. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Lens vs Paris FC: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.65 | 3.66 | 2.77 |
| Market average | 2.56 | 3.53 | 2.69 |
| Lowest odds | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.19 | 79.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 1.64 | 57.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.36 | 2.27 | 42.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.64 | 2.53 | 37.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.53 | 1.50 | 62.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.50 | 2.45 | 37.9% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 24/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Lens 1–1 Paris FC, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lens 9th (13 points), Paris FC 4th (17 points).
- Form in the competition: Lens 3W 1D 3L (14:11), Paris FC 4W 2D 1L (12:7).
- H2H: 14 matches: Lens 7W 4D 3L, goals 18–10.
- Absences: Lens 5, Paris FC 2.
Who will win Lens vs Paris FC?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Lens vs Paris FC: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Lens vs Paris FC: who is missing
Lens
- O. Edouardinjury · will miss the match
- I. Ganiouknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Graditmuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Nawrockiknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Simamuscle injury · will miss the match
Paris FC
- J. Ikonethigh injury · will miss the match
- N. Sanguimuscle injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Lens vs Paris FC: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 | Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Lens
Home and away
Lens vs Paris FC: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Lens are 9th with 13 points after 9 matches (4W 1D 4L), whereas Paris FC are 4th with 17 points (5W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Lens have scored 2.0 and conceded 1.6 goals per game on average in this competition; Paris FC average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lens: 3W 1D 3L, goals 14–11; Paris FC: 4W 2D 1L, goals 12–7.
- Head to head. In their 14 meetings so far, Lens have 7 wins, Paris FC have 3 wins and 4 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 18–10.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.4%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Paris FC are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.54), and our probability for it is 63%. We estimate both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 14; Lens 7 wins, 4 draws, Paris FC 3 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.0 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Lens 14–11, Paris FC 12–7.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 58%.
- Absent: Lens 5, Paris FC 2.
Alternative tip: Lens or draw (1X)
Alternative pick: Lens or draw (1X) (probability 64%, best available odds 1.50). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Lens are missing: O. Edouard, I. Ganiou, J. Gradit, M. Nawrocki, A. Sima. Paris FC are without: J. Ikone, N. Sangui. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Lens vs Paris FC: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
LensLWWWLParis FCWLWLWLens vs Paris FC: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Lens vs Paris FC: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Lens vs Paris FC?
Our result tip is Lens or draw (1X) (odds 1.50), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.54). The safer pick is Lens or draw (1X).
Who will win Lens vs Paris FC?
Our probabilities: Lens to win 37%, a draw 27%, Paris FC to win 36%.
What time and where is kick-off?
24 October 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens. Referee: M. Vernice.
Who will be missing?
Lens: O. Edouard, I. Ganiou, J. Gradit, M. Nawrocki, A. Sima. Paris FC: J. Ikone, N. Sangui. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 58% (odds 1.69); under 2.5 goals is at 42% (odds 2.36).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 62% probability (odds 1.53).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.4%); after that come 2–1 (8.5%) and 1–2 (8.3%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.