Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Marseille meet Le Havre on 25 October 2026 · 16:15 at Orange Vélodrome (Marseille), refereed by Clément Turpin. Marseille (65%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Marseille vs Le Havre: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Marseille are 6th with 15 points after 9 matches (5W 0D 4L), whereas Le Havre are 18th with 2 points (0W 2D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Marseille have scored 2.0 and conceded 1.4 goals per game on average in this competition; Le Havre average 0.7 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Marseille: 3W 0D 4L, goals 14–10; Le Havre: 0W 2D 5L, goals 5–11.
- Head to head. In their 8 meetings so far, Marseille have 8 wins, Le Havre have 0 wins and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 27–9.
What to expect
Marseille should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.52), and our probability for it is 64%. We estimate both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 8; Marseille 8 wins, 0 draws, Le Havre 0 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 4.5 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Marseille 14–10, Le Havre 5–11.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 64%.
- Absent: Marseille 1, Le Havre 6.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 58%, best available odds 1.62). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Marseille are missing: D. Cornelius. Le Havre are without: E. Jelert, F. Mambimbi, L. Mpasi-Nzau, T. Pembele, A. Toure, S. Zagadou. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Marseille vs Le Havre: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.53 | 5.08 | 6.50 |
| Market average | 1.48 | 4.88 | 6.08 |
| Lowest odds | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.13 | 82.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 1.49 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.69 | 2.59 | 36.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.34 | 2.24 | 42.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.24 | 41.6% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 25/10/26, 13:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Marseille 2–1 Le Havre, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Marseille 6th (15 points), Le Havre 18th (2 points).
- Form in the competition: Marseille 3W 0D 4L (14:10), Le Havre 0W 2D 5L (5:11).
- H2H: 8 matches: Marseille 8W 0D 0L, goals 27–9.
- Absences: Marseille 1, Le Havre 6.
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Marseille vs Le Havre: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Marseille vs Le Havre: who is missing
Marseille
- D. Corneliuship injury · will miss the match
Le Havre
- E. Jelertthigh injury · will miss the match
- F. MambimbiAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- L. Mpasi-NzauAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- T. Pembelemuscle injury · will miss the match
- A. Toureknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Zagadouknee injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Marseille vs Le Havre: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 | Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Marseille
Home and away
Marseille vs Le Havre: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
MarseilleWWWWLLe HavreLLLLLMarseille vs Le Havre: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Marseille vs Le Havre: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Marseille vs Le Havre?
Our result tip is Marseille to win (odds 1.53), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.52). The safer pick is Marseille or draw (1X).
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
Our probabilities: Marseille to win 65%, a draw 20%, Le Havre to win 16%.
What time and where is kick-off?
25 October 2026, kick-off at 16:15, at Orange Vélodrome, Marseille. Referee: Clément Turpin.
Who will be missing?
Marseille: D. Cornelius. Le Havre: E. Jelert, F. Mambimbi, L. Mpasi-Nzau, T. Pembele, A. Toure, S. Zagadou. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 64% (odds 1.52); under 2.5 goals is at 36% (odds 2.69).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 58% probability (odds 1.62).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.8%); after that come 2–0 (9.3%) and 1–1 (8.7%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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