Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sturm Graz are at home to Marseille on 22 October 2026 · 17:45 at Stadion Graz-Liebenau (Graz), with Nenad Minaković as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Sturm Graz are 19th with 4 points after 3 matches (1W 1D 1L), whereas Marseille are 34th with 0 points (0W 0D 3L).
- Head to head. In their 1 meetings so far, Sturm Graz have 1 win, Marseille have 0 wins and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 1–0.
What to expect
Marseille should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.7%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Sturm Graz are stronger, but the betting market gives the away side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 64%. We estimate both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 1; Sturm Graz 1 win, 0 draws, Marseille 0 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 1.0 goals.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 61%.
- Absent: Sturm Graz 0, Marseille 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 64%, best available odds 1.50). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Sturm Graz are missing: no absences. Marseille are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.30 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| Market average | 3.07 | 3.54 | 2.21 |
| Lowest odds | 2.90 | 3.09 | 2.04 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 81.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.54 | 61.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 2.42 | 39.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.34 | 40.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.80 | 2.59 | 36.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 22/10/26, 16:29. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Sturm Graz 1–1 Marseille, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sturm Graz 19th (4 points), Marseille 34th (0 points).
- H2H: 1 match: Sturm Graz 1W 0D 0L, goals 1–0.
- Absences: Sturm Graz 0, Marseille 0.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: who is missing
Sturm Graz
- No reported absences
Marseille
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 4 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 5 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3-0-0 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2-1-0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Lyon | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 13 |  Rennes | 3 | 1-2-0 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Lillestrøm | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 |  Lech Poznań | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 |  Plzeň | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:11 | 0 |
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Sturm Graz vs Marseille: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Our result tip is Draw or Marseille (X2) (odds 1.42), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.50). The safer pick is Draw or Marseille (X2).
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Our probabilities: Sturm Graz to win 31%, a draw 27%, Marseille to win 43%.
What time and where is kick-off?
22 October 2026, kick-off at 17:45, at Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz. Referee: Nenad Minaković.
Who will be missing?
Sturm Graz: no absences. Marseille: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 61% (odds 1.60); under 2.5 goals is at 39% (odds 2.62).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 64% probability (odds 1.50).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.7%); after that come 1–2 (9.1%) and 0–1 (7.7%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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