Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Marseille v Toulouse is on 1 November 2026 · 19:45 at Orange Vélodrome (Marseille); Hakim Ben el Hadj takes charge. We think Marseille (50%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Marseille vs Toulouse: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.97 | 4.25 | 3.80 |
| Market average | 1.92 | 3.96 | 3.61 |
| Lowest odds | 1.87 | 3.58 | 3.19 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.13 | 82.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 1.48 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 2.58 | 36.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.32 | 2.23 | 42.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.44 | 64.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.80 | 2.63 | 35.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 1/11/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.2%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Marseille 1–1 Toulouse, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Marseille 6th (15 points), Toulouse 12th (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Marseille 4W 0D 4L (18:13), Toulouse 2W 4D 2L (12:11).
- H2H: 32 matches: Marseille 18W 12D 2L, goals 62–29.
- Absences: Marseille 1, Toulouse 2.
Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Marseille vs Toulouse: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Marseille vs Toulouse: who is missing
Marseille
- D. Corneliuship injury · will miss the match
Toulouse
- R. Messalithigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Nifloreknee injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Marseille vs Toulouse: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 | Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Marseille
Home and away
Marseille vs Toulouse: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Marseille are 6th with 15 points after 9 matches (5W 0D 4L), whereas Toulouse are 12th with 10 points (2W 4D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Marseille have scored 2.3 and conceded 1.6 goals per game on average in this competition; Toulouse average 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Marseille: 4W 0D 4L, goals 18–13; Toulouse: 2W 4D 2L, goals 12–11.
- Head to head. In their 32 meetings so far, Marseille have 18 wins, Toulouse have 2 wins and 12 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 62–29.
What to expect
Marseille should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (9.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 32; Marseille 18 wins, 12 draws, Toulouse 2 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.8 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Marseille 18–13, Toulouse 12–11.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 64%.
- Absent: Marseille 1, Toulouse 2.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 65%, best available odds 1.50). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Marseille are missing: D. Cornelius. Toulouse are without: R. Messali, M. Niflore. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Marseille vs Toulouse: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
MarseilleWWWWLToulouseLDWDWMarseille vs Toulouse: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Marseille vs Toulouse: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Marseille vs Toulouse?
Our result tip is Marseille to win (odds 1.97), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.50). The safer pick is Marseille or draw (1X).
Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?
Our probabilities: Marseille to win 50%, a draw 24%, Toulouse to win 26%.
What time and where is kick-off?
1 November 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Orange Vélodrome, Marseille. Referee: Hakim Ben el Hadj.
Who will be missing?
Marseille: D. Cornelius. Toulouse: R. Messali, M. Niflore. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 64% (odds 1.52); under 2.5 goals is at 36% (odds 2.70).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 65% probability (odds 1.50).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (9.9%); after that come 2–1 (9.4%) and 1–0 (7.4%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.