Bet with MINO CASINO →Genoa meet AC Milan on 8 November 2026 · 14:00 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Genoa). AC Milan (52%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Genoa vs AC Milan: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Genoa are 11th with 13 points after 10 matches (4W 1D 5L), whereas AC Milan are 5th with 21 points (6W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Genoa have scored 1.0 and conceded 1.4 goals per game on average in this competition; AC Milan average 2.1 scored and 1.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Genoa: 4W 1D 5L, goals 10–14; AC Milan: 6W 3D 1L, goals 21–12.
- Head to head. In their 31 meetings so far, Genoa have 5 wins, AC Milan have 19 wins and 7 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 26–44.
What to expect
AC Milan should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 0–1 (13.4%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.81), and our probability for it is 54%. We estimate both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 31; Genoa 5 wins, 7 draws, AC Milan 19 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.3 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Genoa 10–14, AC Milan 21–12.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 46%.
- Absent: Genoa 1, AC Milan 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: no
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: no (probability 51%, best available odds 1.85). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Genoa are missing: L. Venturino. AC Milan are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Genoa vs AC Milan: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 4.84 | 3.72 | 1.85 |
| Market average | 4.50 | 3.53 | 1.80 |
| Lowest odds | 3.94 | 3.19 | 1.75 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.38 | 1.36 | 69.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.16 | 2.09 | 45.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.81 | 1.75 | 54.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.90 | 3.73 | 25.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.91 | 48.6% |
| BTTS – no | 1.85 | 1.81 | 51.4% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:10. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.4%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Genoa 0–1 AC Milan, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Genoa 11th (13 points), AC Milan 5th (21 points).
- Form in the competition: Genoa 4W 1D 5L (10:14), AC Milan 6W 3D 1L (21:12).
- H2H: 31 matches: Genoa 5W 7D 19L, goals 26–44.
- Absences: Genoa 1, AC Milan 0.
Who will win Genoa vs AC Milan?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Genoa vs AC Milan: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Genoa vs AC Milan: who is missing
Genoa
- L. Venturinoabsence · will miss the match
AC Milan
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Genoa vs AC Milan: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 | Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Genoa
Home and away
Genoa vs AC Milan: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
GenoaWWWLWAC MilanWLWWDGenoa vs AC Milan: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Genoa vs AC Milan: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Genoa vs AC Milan?
Genoa +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.86); Under 2.5 goals (1.81).
Who will win Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our probabilities: Genoa to win 21%, a draw 27%, AC Milan to win 52%.
What time and where is kick-off?
8 November 2026, kick-off at 14:00, at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa.
Who will be missing?
Genoa: L. Venturino. AC Milan: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 46% (odds 2.16); under 2.5 goals is at 54% (odds 1.81).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 49% probability (odds 1.95).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 0–1 (13.4%); after that come 1–1 (12.0%) and 0–2 (10.4%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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