Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
AC Milan meet Bologna on 28 October 2026 · 17:30 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza (Milan), refereed by Juan Luca Sacchi. AC Milan (55%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
AC Milan vs Bologna: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.78 | 3.81 | 5.33 |
| Market average | 1.73 | 3.67 | 5.10 |
| Lowest odds | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.35 | 1.33 | 71.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 2.05 | 46.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.84 | 1.78 | 53.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.80 | 3.60 | 26.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.92 | 48.5% |
| BTTS – no | 1.87 | 1.81 | 51.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 28/10/26, 16:28. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: AC Milan 1–0 Bologna, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: AC Milan 5th (21 points), Bologna 9th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: AC Milan 5W 3D 0L (16:7), Bologna 2W 2D 4L (8:10).
- H2H: 32 matches: AC Milan 21W 7D 4L, goals 60–29.
- Absences: AC Milan 7, Bologna 4.
Who will win AC Milan vs Bologna?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
AC Milan vs Bologna: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
AC Milan vs Bologna: who is missing
AC Milan
- S. Chukwuezehip injury · will miss the match
- M. Gabbiathigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Gilaankle injury · will miss the match
- R. Loftus-Cheekthigh injury · will miss the match
- D. Moreirathigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Rabiotcalf injury · will miss the match
- A. Saelemaekersankle injury · will miss the match
Bologna
- E. Holmthigh injury · will miss the match
- R. Orsolinithigh injury · will miss the match
- R. Piccolihamstring injury · will miss the match
- J. EnemAchilles tendon injury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
AC Milan vs Bologna: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 | Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
AC Milan
Home and away
AC Milan vs Bologna: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, AC Milan are 5th with 21 points after 10 matches (6W 3D 1L), whereas Bologna are 9th with 14 points (4W 2D 4L).
- Attack and defence. AC Milan have scored 2.0 and conceded 0.9 goals per game on average in this competition; Bologna average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. AC Milan: 5W 3D 0L, goals 16–7; Bologna: 2W 2D 4L, goals 8–10.
- Head to head. In their 32 meetings so far, AC Milan have 21 wins, Bologna have 4 wins and 7 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 60–29.
What to expect
AC Milan should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–0 (13.5%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.84), and our probability for it is 53%. We estimate both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 32; AC Milan 21 wins, 7 draws, Bologna 4 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.8 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: AC Milan 16–7, Bologna 8–10.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 47%.
- Absent: AC Milan 7, Bologna 4.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: no
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: no (probability 51%, best available odds 1.87). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
AC Milan are missing: S. Chukwueze, M. Gabbia, M. Gila, R. Loftus-Cheek, D. Moreira, A. Rabiot, A. Saelemaekers. Bologna are without: E. Holm, R. Orsolini, R. Piccoli, J. Enem. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
AC Milan vs Bologna: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
AC MilanWLWWDBolognaWWWLWAC Milan vs Bologna: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
AC Milan vs Bologna: questions and answers
What is the best tip for AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our result tip is AC Milan to win (odds 1.78), and our goals tip is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.84). The safer pick is AC Milan or draw (1X).
Who will win AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our probabilities: AC Milan to win 55%, a draw 26%, Bologna to win 19%.
What time and where is kick-off?
28 October 2026, kick-off at 17:30, at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi.
Who will be missing?
AC Milan: S. Chukwueze, M. Gabbia, M. Gila, R. Loftus-Cheek, D. Moreira, A. Rabiot, A. Saelemaekers. Bologna: E. Holm, R. Orsolini, R. Piccoli, J. Enem. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 47% (odds 2.12); under 2.5 goals is at 53% (odds 1.84).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 49% probability (odds 1.95).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–0 (13.5%); after that come 1–1 (11.5%) and 2–0 (11.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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