Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lecce v Genoa is on 1 November 2026 · 17:00 at Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce); Matteo Marchetti takes charge. We think it is an even game. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Lecce vs Genoa: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Lecce are 14th with 9 points after 10 matches (3W 0D 7L), whereas Genoa are 11th with 13 points (4W 1D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Lecce have scored 1.1 and conceded 2.1 goals per game on average in this competition; Genoa average 0.9 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lecce: 3W 0D 6L, goals 10–19; Genoa: 3W 1D 5L, goals 8–13.
- Head to head. In their 14 meetings so far, Lecce have 2 wins, Genoa have 7 wins and 5 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 14–24.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–1 (13.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.69), and our probability for it is 58%. We estimate both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 14; Lecce 2 wins, 5 draws, Genoa 7 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.7 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Lecce 10–19, Genoa 8–13.
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 42%.
- Absent: Lecce 6, Genoa 3.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: no
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: no (probability 51%, best available odds 1.95). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Lecce are missing: M. Berisha, L. Coulibaly, K. Gaspar, W. Geubbels, I. Ilic, S. Pierotti. Genoa are without: E. Havel, L. Venturino, M. E. Ellertsson. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Lecce vs Genoa: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.37 | 3.11 | 2.58 |
| Market average | 3.19 | 3.00 | 2.46 |
| Lowest odds | 2.80 | 2.88 | 2.25 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.44 | 1.40 | 66.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.44 | 2.29 | 41.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 1.63 | 58.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.50 | 4.15 | 22.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.00 | 1.89 | 49.4% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.84 | 50.6% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 1/11/26, 16:38. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.4%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Lecce 1–1 Genoa, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Lecce 14th (9 points), Genoa 11th (13 points).
- Form in the competition: Lecce 3W 0D 6L (10:19), Genoa 3W 1D 5L (8:13).
- H2H: 14 matches: Lecce 2W 5D 7L, goals 14–24.
- Absences: Lecce 6, Genoa 3.
Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Lecce vs Genoa: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Lecce vs Genoa: who is missing
Lecce
- M. Berishathigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Coulibalythigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Gasparred card · will miss the match
- W. Geubbelsmuscle injury · will miss the match
- I. Ilicthigh injury · will miss the match
- S. Pierottiankle injury · will miss the match
Genoa
- E. Havelankle injury · will miss the match
- L. Venturinoknee injury · will miss the match
- M. E. Ellertssonankle injury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Lecce vs Genoa: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 | Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 | Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Lecce
Home and away
Lecce vs Genoa: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
LecceLLLWLGenoaWWWLWLecce vs Genoa: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Lecce vs Genoa: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Lecce vs Genoa?
Genoa +0 (Asian handicap) (1.76); Under 2.5 goals (1.69).
Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?
Our probabilities: Lecce to win 30%, a draw 32%, Genoa to win 39%.
What time and where is kick-off?
1 November 2026, kick-off at 17:00, at Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce. Referee: Matteo Marchetti.
Who will be missing?
Lecce: M. Berisha, L. Coulibaly, K. Gaspar, W. Geubbels, I. Ilic, S. Pierotti. Genoa: E. Havel, L. Venturino, M. E. Ellertsson. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 42% (odds 2.44); under 2.5 goals is at 58% (odds 1.69).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 49% probability (odds 2.00).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (13.2%); after that come 0–1 (12.5%) and 1–0 (10.5%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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