Bet with MINO CASINO →Crewe v Newport County is on 14 November 2026 · 15:00 at Alexandra Stadium (Crewe). We think Crewe (46%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Crewe vs Newport County: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Crewe are 4th with 22 points after 14 matches (5W 7D 2L), whereas Newport County are 14th with 18 points (4W 6D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Crewe have scored 1.2 and conceded 1.2 goals per game on average in this competition; Newport County average 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Crewe: 5W 7D 2L, goals 17–17; Newport County: 4W 6D 4L, goals 20–17.
What to expect
Crewe should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.0%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.73), and our probability for it is 55%. We estimate both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Prediction: key points
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Crewe 17–17, Newport County 20–17.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 51%.
- Absent: Crewe 0, Newport County 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 55%, best available odds 1.73). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Crewe are missing: no absences. Newport County are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Crewe vs Newport County: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Market average | 2.01 | 3.41 | 3.44 |
| Lowest odds | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.34 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.24 | 74.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 1.83 | 51.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.93 | 48.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.95 | 31.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.69 | 54.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.08 | 2.05 | 45.3% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 12:24. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 8.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Crewe 1–1 Newport County, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Crewe 4th (22 points), Newport County 14th (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Crewe 5W 7D 2L (17:17), Newport County 4W 6D 4L (20:17).
- Absences: Crewe 0, Newport County 0.
Who will win Crewe vs Newport County?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Crewe vs Newport County: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Most likely correct scores
Crewe vs Newport County: who is missing
Crewe
- No reported absences
Newport County
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Crewe vs Newport County: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | 10-1-3 | 25:15 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | 7-5-1 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | 5-7-1 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5-7-2 | 17:17 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | 6-3-5 | 23:25 | 21 |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:18 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:21 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | 5-5-4 | 20:19 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington ST | 14 | 4-7-3 | 23:17 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | 5-4-5 | 24:21 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | 4-7-3 | 19:17 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | 5-4-5 | 11:9 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | 5-4-5 | 15:17 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4-6-4 | 20:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | 5-3-6 | 17:22 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4-5-5 | 18:18 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5-1-8 | 17:23 | 16 |
| 18 |  Port Vale | 12 | 4-3-5 | 10:14 | 15 |
| 19 |  Rochdale | 14 | 4-3-7 | 17:26 | 15 |
| 20 |  Northampton | 12 | 3-5-4 | 9:9 | 14 |
| 21 |  Oldham | 13 | 3-3-7 | 14:19 | 12 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | 2-6-6 | 18:25 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | 2-6-5 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | 2-3-7 | 13:21 | 9 |
Recent matches
Crewe
Home and away
Crewe vs Newport County: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
CreweDLLWWNewport CountyWLDDWReturns calculator
Crewe vs Newport County: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Crewe vs Newport County?
Draw or Newport County (X2) (1.85); Both teams to score (1.73).
Who will win Crewe vs Newport County?
Our probabilities: Crewe to win 46%, a draw 27%, Newport County to win 27%.
What time and where is kick-off?
14 November 2026, kick-off at 15:00, at Alexandra Stadium, Crewe.
Who will be missing?
Crewe: no absences. Newport County: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 51% (odds 1.85); under 2.5 goals is at 49% (odds 1.95).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 55% probability (odds 1.73).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.0%); after that come 1–0 (10.4%) and 2–1 (9.3%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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