Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Newport County v Chesterfield is on 30 October 2026 · 19:45 at Rodney Parade (Newport); Z. Kennard-Kettle takes charge. We think Chesterfield (54%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Newport County vs Chesterfield: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 5.00 | 3.95 | 1.98 |
| Market average | 4.60 | 3.67 | 1.72 |
| Lowest odds | 3.02 | 3.01 | 1.65 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.26 | 73.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.87 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.89 | 49.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.30 | 3.15 | 29.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.87 | 1.81 | 51.3% |
| BTTS – no | 1.93 | 1.91 | 48.7% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 30/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Newport County 0–1 Chesterfield, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Newport County 14th (18 points), Chesterfield 10th (19 points).
- Form in the competition: Newport County 3W 6D 4L (16:16), Chesterfield 5W 4D 4L (23:17).
- H2H: 9 matches: Newport County 4W 1D 4L, goals 16–16.
- Absences: Newport County 0, Chesterfield 0.
Who will win Newport County vs Chesterfield?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Newport County vs Chesterfield: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Newport County vs Chesterfield: who is missing
Newport County
- No reported absences
Chesterfield
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Newport County vs Chesterfield: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | 10-1-3 | 25:15 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | 7-5-1 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | 5-7-1 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe | 14 | 5-7-2 | 17:17 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | 6-3-5 | 23:25 | 21 |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:18 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:21 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | 5-5-4 | 20:19 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington ST | 14 | 4-7-3 | 23:17 | 19 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5-4-5 | 24:21 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | 4-7-3 | 19:17 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | 5-4-5 | 11:9 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | 5-4-5 | 15:17 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4-6-4 | 20:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | 5-3-6 | 17:22 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4-5-5 | 18:18 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5-1-8 | 17:23 | 16 |
| 18 |  Port Vale | 12 | 4-3-5 | 10:14 | 15 |
| 19 |  Rochdale | 14 | 4-3-7 | 17:26 | 15 |
| 20 |  Northampton | 12 | 3-5-4 | 9:9 | 14 |
| 21 |  Oldham | 13 | 3-3-7 | 14:19 | 12 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | 2-6-6 | 18:25 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | 2-6-5 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | 2-3-7 | 13:21 | 9 |
Recent matches
Newport County
Home and away
Newport County vs Chesterfield: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Newport County are 14th with 18 points after 14 matches (4W 6D 4L), whereas Chesterfield are 10th with 19 points (5W 4D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Newport County have scored 1.2 and conceded 1.2 goals per game on average in this competition; Chesterfield average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Newport County: 3W 6D 4L, goals 16–16; Chesterfield: 5W 4D 4L, goals 23–17.
- Head to head. In their 9 meetings so far, Newport County have 4 wins, Chesterfield have 4 wins and 1 draw have been recorded; the goals stand at 16–16.
What to expect
Chesterfield should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 0–1 (12.0%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.87), and our probability for it is 51%. We estimate both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 9; Newport County 4 wins, 1 draw, Chesterfield 4 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.6 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Newport County 16–16, Chesterfield 23–17.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 50%.
- Absent: Newport County 0, Chesterfield 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 51%, best available odds 1.87). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Newport County are missing: no absences. Chesterfield are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Newport County vs Chesterfield: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Newport CountyWLDDWChesterfieldLWDLDNewport County vs Chesterfield: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Newport County vs Chesterfield: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Newport County vs Chesterfield?
Our result tip is Chesterfield to win (odds 1.98), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.87). The safer pick is Draw or Chesterfield (X2).
Who will win Newport County vs Chesterfield?
Our probabilities: Newport County to win 20%, a draw 25%, Chesterfield to win 54%.
What time and where is kick-off?
30 October 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Rodney Parade, Newport. Referee: Z. Kennard-Kettle.
Who will be missing?
Newport County: no absences. Chesterfield: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 50% (odds 1.95); under 2.5 goals is at 50% (odds 1.93).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 51% probability (odds 1.87).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 0–1 (12.0%); after that come 1–1 (11.4%) and 0–2 (10.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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