Bet with MINO CASINO →Bayer Leverkusen are at home to Marseille on 5 November 2026 · 20:00 at BayArena (Bayer Leverkusen). Our favourites are Bayer Leverkusen (67%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.45 | 5.50 | 7.00 |
| Market average | 1.40 | 5.04 | 6.62 |
| Lowest odds | 1.34 | 4.56 | 6.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.13 | 83.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 1.45 | 64.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.78 | 2.67 | 35.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.19 | 2.14 | 44.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.64 | 57.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.17 | 43.0% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:31. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 Marseille, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Bayer Leverkusen 2nd (9 points), Marseille 34th (0 points).
- Form in the competition: Bayer Leverkusen 3W 0D 0L (8:0), Marseille 0W 0D 3L (1:6).
- Absences: Bayer Leverkusen 11, Marseille 3.
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: who is missing
Bayer Leverkusen
- E. Ben Seghirmuscle injury · will miss the match
- V. Bonifacenot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Diabyhamstring injury · will miss the match
- K. Eichhornillness · will miss the match
- J. Hofmannnot in the squad · will miss the match
- C. Kofanemuscle injury · will miss the match
- T. Oermannnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Terriermuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Badeabsence · doubtful
- G. Douecalf injury · doubtful
- N. Tellamuscle injury · doubtful
Marseille
- D. Corneliuship injury · will miss the match
- Emersoninjury · doubtful
- A. Haritinjury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 4 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 5 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3-0-0 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2-1-0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Lyon | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 13 |  Rennes | 3 | 1-2-0 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Lillestrøm | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 |  Lech Poznań | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 |  Plzeň | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
Bayer Leverkusen
Home and away
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Bayer Leverkusen are 2nd with 9 points after 3 matches (3W 0D 0L), whereas Marseille are 34th with 0 points (0W 0D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Bayer Leverkusen have scored 2.7 and conceded 0.0 goals per game on average in this competition; Marseille average 0.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Bayer Leverkusen: 3W 0D 0L, goals 8–0; Marseille: 0W 0D 3L, goals 1–6.
What to expect
Bayer Leverkusen should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.7%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Prediction: key points
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Bayer Leverkusen 8–0, Marseille 1–6.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 65%.
- Absent: Bayer Leverkusen 11, Marseille 3.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 57%, best available odds 1.67). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Bayer Leverkusen are missing: E. Ben Seghir, V. Boniface, M. Diaby, K. Eichhorn, J. Hofmann, C. Kofane, T. Oermann, M. Terrier, L. Bade, G. Doue, N. Tella. Marseille are without: D. Cornelius, Emerson, A. Harit. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Bayer LeverkusenWWWMarseilleLLLReturns calculator
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
Our result tip is Bayer Leverkusen to win (odds 1.45), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.50). The safer pick is Bayer Leverkusen or draw (1X).
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?
Our probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen to win 67%, a draw 19%, Marseille to win 14%.
What time and where is kick-off?
5 November 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen.
Who will be missing?
Bayer Leverkusen: E. Ben Seghir, V. Boniface, M. Diaby, K. Eichhorn, J. Hofmann, C. Kofane, T. Oermann, M. Terrier, L. Bade, G. Doue, N. Tella. Marseille: D. Cornelius, Emerson, A. Harit. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 65% (odds 1.50); under 2.5 goals is at 35% (odds 2.78).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 57% probability (odds 1.67).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.7%); after that come 2–0 (9.7%) and 1–1 (8.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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