Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Ajax are at home to Atalanta on 22 October 2026 · 20:00 at Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam), with A. Nobre as the referee. Our favourites are Ajax (46%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Ajax vs Atalanta: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Ajax are 13th with 3 points after 2 matches (1W 0D 1L), whereas Atalanta are 15th with 3 points (1W 0D 1L).
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–2, about 4 goals combined, and 1–1 (9.5%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.45), and our probability for it is 67%. We estimate both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 67%.
- Absent: Ajax 0, Atalanta 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 53%, best available odds 1.84). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Ajax are missing: no absences. Atalanta are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Ajax vs Atalanta: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.21 | 4.03 | 3.34 |
| Market average | 2.05 | 3.82 | 3.14 |
| Lowest odds | 1.98 | 3.50 | 2.86 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.10 | 85.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 1.40 | 66.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.82 | 33.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.14 | 2.03 | 46.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.38 | 67.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.94 | 2.83 | 32.8% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 22/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Ajax 1–1 Atalanta, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Ajax 13th (3 points), Atalanta 15th (3 points).
- Absences: Ajax 0, Atalanta 0.
Who will win Ajax vs Atalanta?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Ajax vs Atalanta: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Ajax vs Atalanta: who is missing
Ajax
- No reported absences
Atalanta
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Ajax vs Atalanta: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 2 | 2-0-0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 2 |  FC Lugano | 2 | 2-0-0 | 8:4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Brann | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Twente | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 6 |  Monaco | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 7 |  St. Truiden | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3:0 | 6 |
| 8 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 9 |  Brighton | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4:0 | 4 |
| 10 |  FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1-1-0 | 5:2 | 4 |
| 11 |  Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 12 |  Mjällby AIF | 2 | 1-1-0 | 3:1 | 4 |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 16 |  SC Braga | 2 | 1-0-1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 17 |  Gent | 2 | 1-0-1 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 18 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 19 |  FC Nordsjælland | 2 | 0-2-0 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 20 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 21 |  Riga | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 22 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0-1-1 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 23 |  CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0-1-1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 24 |  FK Jablonec | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 25 |  FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 26 |  Aarhus | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 27 |  Pafos | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 28 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 30 |  Getafe | 2 | 0-1-1 | 3:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 32 |  FC Thun | 2 | 0-0-2 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 33 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 34 |  KuPS | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1:8 | 0 |
Recent matches
Ajax
Home and away
Returns calculator
Ajax vs Atalanta: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Ajax vs Atalanta?
Under 3.5 goals (1.84); Ajax to win (2.21).
Who will win Ajax vs Atalanta?
Our probabilities: Ajax to win 46%, a draw 25%, Atalanta to win 30%.
What time and where is kick-off?
22 October 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. Referee: A. Nobre.
Who will be missing?
Ajax: no absences. Atalanta: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 67% (odds 1.45); under 2.5 goals is at 33% (odds 3.10).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 67% probability (odds 1.40).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (9.5%); after that come 2–1 (9.0%) and 1–2 (7.1%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.