Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Atalanta are at home to Frosinone on 25 October 2026 · 14:00 at New Balance Arena (Bergamo), with Livio Marinelli as the referee. Our favourites are Atalanta (51%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Atalanta vs Frosinone: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.93 | 4.30 | 3.85 |
| Market average | 1.89 | 4.15 | 3.63 |
| Lowest odds | 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.07 | 87.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.34 | 1.31 | 71.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.50 | 3.33 | 28.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.89 | 1.82 | 52.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.35 | 1.32 | 70.7% |
| BTTS – no | 3.40 | 3.19 | 29.3% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 25/10/26, 12:54. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Atalanta 2–1 Frosinone, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Atalanta 13th (11 points), Frosinone 6th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Atalanta 3W 0D 4L (10:11), Frosinone 4W 1D 2L (13:9).
- H2H: 7 matches: Atalanta 4W 2D 1L, goals 21–6.
- Absences: Atalanta 7, Frosinone 1.
Who will win Atalanta vs Frosinone?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Atalanta vs Frosinone: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Atalanta vs Frosinone: who is missing
Atalanta
- I. Hienmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Kessiecalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Kolasinacthigh injury · will miss the match
- O. Kossounouthigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Raspadorithigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Scalvinithigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Sulemanaknee injury · will miss the match
Frosinone
- F. Grillitschthigh injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Atalanta vs Frosinone: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Atalanta
Home and away
Atalanta vs Frosinone: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Atalanta are 13th with 11 points after 10 matches (3W 2D 5L), whereas Frosinone are 6th with 20 points (6W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Atalanta have scored 1.4 and conceded 1.6 goals per game on average in this competition; Frosinone average 1.9 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Atalanta: 3W 0D 4L, goals 10–11; Frosinone: 4W 1D 2L, goals 13–9.
- Head to head. In their 7 meetings so far, Atalanta have 4 wins, Frosinone have 1 win and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 21–6.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–2, about 4 goals combined, and 2–1 (8.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Frosinone are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.89), and our probability for it is 52%. We estimate both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 7; Atalanta 4 wins, 2 draws, Frosinone 1 win.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.9 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Atalanta 10–11, Frosinone 13–9.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 72%.
- Absent: Atalanta 7, Frosinone 1.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 48%, best available odds 2.06). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Atalanta are missing: I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, G. Raspadori, G. Scalvini, K. Sulemana. Frosinone are without: F. Grillitsch. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Atalanta vs Frosinone: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
AtalantaLDDLWFrosinoneWWDWLAtalanta vs Frosinone: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Atalanta vs Frosinone: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Our result tip is Atalanta to win (odds 1.93), and our goals tip is Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.89). The safer pick is Atalanta or draw (1X).
Who will win Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Our probabilities: Atalanta to win 51%, a draw 23%, Frosinone to win 26%.
What time and where is kick-off?
25 October 2026, kick-off at 14:00, at New Balance Arena, Bergamo. Referee: Livio Marinelli.
Who will be missing?
Atalanta: I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, G. Raspadori, G. Scalvini, K. Sulemana. Frosinone: F. Grillitsch. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 72% (odds 1.34); under 2.5 goals is at 28% (odds 3.50).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 71% probability (odds 1.35).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (8.9%); after that come 1–1 (8.2%) and 2–2 (6.9%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.