Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–5. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Groningen v Ajax is on 18 October 2026 · 15:45 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion (Groningen); Dennis Higler takes charge. We think Ajax (52%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Groningen vs Ajax: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Groningen are 8th with 15 points after 11 matches (4W 3D 4L), whereas Ajax are 2nd with 24 points (7W 3D 1L).
What to expect
Ajax should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–2 (9.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.96), and our probability for it is 50%. We estimate both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 70%.
- Absent: Groningen 0, Ajax 0.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 3.5 goals (probability 50%, best available odds 1.93). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Groningen are missing: no absences. Ajax are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Groningen vs Ajax: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 4.10 | 4.37 | 1.85 |
| Market average | 3.80 | 4.17 | 1.81 |
| Lowest odds | 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 86.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.33 | 69.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.30 | 3.07 | 30.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.88 | 49.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.36 | 67.9% |
| BTTS – no | 3.00 | 2.87 | 32.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 18/10/26, 13:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Groningen 1–2 Ajax, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Groningen 8th (15 points), Ajax 2nd (24 points).
- Absences: Groningen 0, Ajax 0.
Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Groningen vs Ajax: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Groningen vs Ajax: who is missing
Groningen
- No reported absences
Ajax
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Groningen vs Ajax: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
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Groningen vs Ajax: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Groningen vs Ajax?
Groningen +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Under 3.5 goals (1.96).
Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?
Our probabilities: Groningen to win 25%, a draw 23%, Ajax to win 52%.
What time and where is kick-off?
18 October 2026, kick-off at 15:45, at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen. Referee: Dennis Higler.
Who will be missing?
Groningen: no absences. Ajax: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 70% (odds 1.36); under 2.5 goals is at 30% (odds 3.30).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 68% probability (odds 1.40).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–2 (9.2%); after that come 1–1 (8.7%) and 2–2 (6.7%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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