Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax is on 25 October 2026 · 15:45 at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel (Rotterdam); Danny Makkelie takes charge. We think Ajax (66%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 6.30 | 5.42 | 1.48 |
| Market average | 6.01 | 5.08 | 1.44 |
| Lowest odds | 5.50 | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 86.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.33 | 70.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 29.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.91 | 1.86 | 50.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.60 | 2.52 | 36.7% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 25/10/26, 12:59. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Ajax, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sparta Rotterdam 11th (12 points), Ajax 2nd (24 points).
- Form in the competition: Sparta Rotterdam 2W 3D 4L (16:22), Ajax 5W 3D 1L (27:12).
- H2H: 19 matches: Sparta Rotterdam 0W 3D 16L, goals 16–49.
- Absences: Sparta Rotterdam 1, Ajax 7.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: who is missing
Sparta Rotterdam
- S. Mitoinjury · will miss the match
Ajax
- S. Adingraabsence · will miss the match
- Caio Henriquethigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Dolbergknee injury · will miss the match
- O. Edvardsennot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Gaaeiinjury · will miss the match
- S. Berghuisinjury · doubtful
- D. Blindback injury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Sparta Rotterdam
Home and away
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Sparta Rotterdam are 11th with 12 points after 11 matches (3W 3D 5L), whereas Ajax are 2nd with 24 points (7W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Sparta Rotterdam have scored 1.8 and conceded 2.4 goals per game on average in this competition; Ajax average 3.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sparta Rotterdam: 2W 3D 4L, goals 16–22; Ajax: 5W 3D 1L, goals 27–12.
- Head to head. In their 19 meetings so far, Sparta Rotterdam have 0 wins, Ajax have 16 wins and 3 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 16–49.
What to expect
Ajax should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–2 (9.4%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 63%. We estimate both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 19; Sparta Rotterdam 0 wins, 3 draws, Ajax 16 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.4 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Sparta Rotterdam 16–22, Ajax 27–12.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 71%.
- Absent: Sparta Rotterdam 1, Ajax 7.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 63%, best available odds 1.50). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Sparta Rotterdam are missing: S. Mito. Ajax are without: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis, D. Blind. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Sparta RotterdamWLWDLAjaxWWWDDSparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Our result tip is Ajax to win (odds 1.48), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.50). The safer pick is Draw or Ajax (X2).
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Our probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam to win 16%, a draw 19%, Ajax to win 66%.
What time and where is kick-off?
25 October 2026, kick-off at 15:45, at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam. Referee: Danny Makkelie.
Who will be missing?
Sparta Rotterdam: S. Mito. Ajax: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis, D. Blind. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 71% (odds 1.36); under 2.5 goals is at 29% (odds 3.40).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 63% probability (odds 1.50).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–2 (9.4%); after that come 0–2 (8.2%) and 1–3 (7.7%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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