Bet with MINO CASINO →FC Midtjylland are at home to Ajax on 5 November 2026 · 17:45 at MCH Arena (Herning). We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, FC Midtjylland are 25th with 1 point after 2 matches (0W 1D 1L), whereas Ajax are 13th with 3 points (1W 0D 1L).
- Attack and defence. FC Midtjylland have scored 2.0 and conceded 0.8 goals per game on average in this competition; Ajax average 3.1 scored and 1.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. FC Midtjylland: 4W 1D 1L, goals 12–5; Ajax: 6W 1D 1L, goals 25–12.
- Head to head. In their 2 meetings so far, FC Midtjylland have 0 wins, Ajax have 2 wins and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 2–5.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–2, about 4 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.4%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.55), and our probability for it is 63%. We estimate both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 2; FC Midtjylland 0 wins, 0 draws, Ajax 2 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.5 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: FC Midtjylland 12–5, Ajax 25–12.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 63%.
- Absent: FC Midtjylland 0, Ajax 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 57%, best available odds 1.67). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
FC Midtjylland are missing: no absences. Ajax are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.92 | 3.81 | 2.40 |
| Market average | 2.72 | 3.63 | 2.34 |
| Lowest odds | 2.42 | 3.39 | 2.26 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.14 | 82.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.55 | 1.49 | 62.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.53 | 37.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.30 | 2.21 | 42.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.42 | 65.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.70 | 34.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:30. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: FC Midtjylland 1–1 Ajax, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: FC Midtjylland 25th (1 point), Ajax 13th (3 points).
- Form in the competition: FC Midtjylland 4W 1D 1L (12:5), Ajax 6W 1D 1L (25:12).
- H2H: 2 matches: FC Midtjylland 0W 0D 2L, goals 2–5.
- Absences: FC Midtjylland 0, Ajax 0.
Who will win FC Midtjylland vs Ajax?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: who is missing
FC Midtjylland
- No reported absences
Ajax
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 2 | 2-0-0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 2 |  FC Lugano | 2 | 2-0-0 | 8:4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Brann | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Twente | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 6 |  Monaco | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 7 |  St. Truiden | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3:0 | 6 |
| 8 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 9 |  Brighton | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4:0 | 4 |
| 10 |  FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1-1-0 | 5:2 | 4 |
| 11 |  Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 12 |  Mjällby AIF | 2 | 1-1-0 | 3:1 | 4 |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 15 |  Atalanta | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 16 |  SC Braga | 2 | 1-0-1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 17 |  Gent | 2 | 1-0-1 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 18 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 19 |  FC Nordsjælland | 2 | 0-2-0 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 20 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 21 |  Riga | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 22 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0-1-1 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 23 |  CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0-1-1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 24 |  FK Jablonec | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 26 |  Aarhus | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 27 |  Pafos | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 28 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 30 |  Getafe | 2 | 0-1-1 | 3:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 32 |  FC Thun | 2 | 0-0-2 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 33 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 34 |  KuPS | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1:8 | 0 |
Recent matches
FC Midtjylland
Home and away
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
FC MidtjyllandLDAjaxWLFC Midtjylland vs Ajax: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
FC Midtjylland vs Ajax: questions and answers
What is the best tip for FC Midtjylland vs Ajax?
Ajax +0 (Asian handicap) (1.81); Over 2.5 goals (1.55).
Who will win FC Midtjylland vs Ajax?
Our probabilities: FC Midtjylland to win 34%, a draw 26%, Ajax to win 40%.
What time and where is kick-off?
5 November 2026, kick-off at 17:45, at MCH Arena, Herning.
Who will be missing?
FC Midtjylland: no absences. Ajax: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 63% (odds 1.55); under 2.5 goals is at 37% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 66% probability (odds 1.44).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.4%); after that come 1–2 (8.6%) and 2–1 (8.1%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.