Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Ajax meet AZ Alkmaar on 31 October 2026 · 20:00 at Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam), refereed by Allard Lindhout. Ajax (54%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.80 | 4.55 | 4.18 |
| Market average | 1.73 | 4.28 | 3.98 |
| Lowest odds | 1.60 | 3.81 | 3.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.09 | 85.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.41 | 1.36 | 68.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 3.01 | 31.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.07 | 1.96 | 48.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.42 | 1.39 | 66.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.80 | 33.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 31/10/26, 13:04. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Ajax 2–1 AZ Alkmaar, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Ajax 2nd (24 points), AZ Alkmaar 5th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Ajax 6W 3D 1L (29:13), AZ Alkmaar 6W 2D 2L (20:12).
- H2H: 37 matches: Ajax 15W 8D 14L, goals 62–48.
- Absences: Ajax 6, AZ Alkmaar 6.
Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: who is missing
Ajax
- S. Adingraabsence · will miss the match
- Caio Henriquethigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Dolbergknee injury · will miss the match
- O. Edvardsennot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Gaaeiinjury · will miss the match
- S. Berghuisinjury · doubtful
AZ Alkmaar
- J. Hornkampinjury · will miss the match
- A. Oufkirabsence · will miss the match
- S. Resinkknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Smitinjury · will miss the match
- J. Zoetnot in the squad · will miss the match
- W. Goesnot in the squad · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Ajax
Home and away
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Ajax are 2nd with 24 points after 11 matches (7W 3D 1L), whereas AZ Alkmaar are 5th with 20 points (6W 2D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Ajax have scored 2.9 and conceded 1.3 goals per game on average in this competition; AZ Alkmaar average 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Ajax: 6W 3D 1L, goals 29–13; AZ Alkmaar: 6W 2D 2L, goals 20–12.
- Head to head. In their 37 meetings so far, Ajax have 15 wins, AZ Alkmaar have 14 wins and 8 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 62–48.
What to expect
Ajax should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.3%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.87), and our probability for it is 52%. We estimate both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 37; Ajax 15 wins, 8 draws, AZ Alkmaar 14 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.0 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Ajax 29–13, AZ Alkmaar 20–12.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 69%.
- Absent: Ajax 6, AZ Alkmaar 6.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 3.5 goals (probability 48%, best available odds 2.07). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Ajax are missing: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis. AZ Alkmaar are without: J. Hornkamp, A. Oufkir, S. Resink, K. Smit, J. Zoet, W. Goes. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
AjaxWWWDDAZ AlkmaarLLDLWAjax vs AZ Alkmaar: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our result tip is Ajax to win (odds 1.80), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.87). The safer pick is Ajax or draw (1X).
Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our probabilities: Ajax to win 54%, a draw 22%, AZ Alkmaar to win 24%.
What time and where is kick-off?
31 October 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. Referee: Allard Lindhout.
Who will be missing?
Ajax: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis. AZ Alkmaar: J. Hornkamp, A. Oufkir, S. Resink, K. Smit, J. Zoet, W. Goes. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 69% (odds 1.41); under 2.5 goals is at 31% (odds 3.10).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 67% probability (odds 1.42).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.3%); after that come 1–1 (8.6%) and 3–1 (6.7%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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