Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Rochdale v Grimsby is on 20 October 2026 · 19:45 at Spotland Stadium (Rochdale); D. Bourne takes charge. We think it is an even game. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Rochdale vs Grimsby: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Rochdale are 19th with 15 points after 14 matches (4W 3D 7L), whereas Grimsby are 6th with 20 points (5W 5D 4L).
What to expect
Grimsby should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 64%. We estimate both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 57%.
- Absent: Rochdale 0, Grimsby 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 60%, best available odds 1.60). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Rochdale are missing: no absences. Grimsby are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Rochdale vs Grimsby: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.30 | 3.83 | 2.16 |
| Market average | 3.17 | 3.58 | 2.08 |
| Lowest odds | 2.75 | 3.13 | 2.02 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.18 | 78.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 1.66 | 56.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.26 | 2.17 | 43.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.67 | 2.55 | 36.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.60 | 1.55 | 59.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.45 | 2.31 | 40.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 20/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Rochdale 1–1 Grimsby, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Rochdale 19th (15 points), Grimsby 6th (20 points).
- Absences: Rochdale 0, Grimsby 0.
Who will win Rochdale vs Grimsby?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Rochdale vs Grimsby: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Rochdale vs Grimsby: who is missing
Rochdale
- No reported absences
Grimsby
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Rochdale vs Grimsby: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | 10-1-3 | 25:15 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | 7-5-1 | 28:18 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | 5-7-1 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe | 14 | 5-7-2 | 17:17 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | 6-3-5 | 23:25 | 21 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:18 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | 5-5-4 | 24:21 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | 5-5-4 | 20:19 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington ST | 14 | 4-7-3 | 23:17 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | 5-4-5 | 24:21 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | 4-7-3 | 19:17 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | 5-4-5 | 11:9 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | 5-4-5 | 15:17 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | 4-6-4 | 20:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | 5-3-6 | 17:22 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4-5-5 | 18:18 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5-1-8 | 17:23 | 16 |
| 18 |  Port Vale | 12 | 4-3-5 | 10:14 | 15 |
| 19 | Rochdale | 14 | 4-3-7 | 17:26 | 15 |
| 20 |  Northampton | 12 | 3-5-4 | 9:9 | 14 |
| 21 |  Oldham | 13 | 3-3-7 | 14:19 | 12 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | 2-6-6 | 18:25 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | 2-6-5 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | 2-3-7 | 13:21 | 9 |
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Rochdale vs Grimsby: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Rochdale vs Grimsby?
Grimsby -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.92); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win Rochdale vs Grimsby?
Our probabilities: Rochdale to win 29%, a draw 26%, Grimsby to win 45%.
What time and where is kick-off?
20 October 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Spotland Stadium, Rochdale. Referee: D. Bourne.
Who will be missing?
Rochdale: no absences. Grimsby: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 57% (odds 1.76); under 2.5 goals is at 43% (odds 2.26).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 60% probability (odds 1.60).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.2%); after that come 1–2 (9.3%) and 0–1 (8.6%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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