Bet with MINO CASINO →Real Sociedad are at home to Lyon on 5 November 2026 · 17:45 at Anoeta Stadium (San Sebastián). Our favourites are Real Sociedad (51%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.91 | 4.09 | 4.25 |
| Market average | 1.83 | 3.85 | 3.94 |
| Lowest odds | 1.77 | 3.50 | 3.62 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.16 | 80.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.55 | 60.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.48 | 2.39 | 39.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.44 | 2.38 | 40.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.53 | 1.51 | 61.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.55 | 2.44 | 38.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:31. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Real Sociedad 1–1 Lyon, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Real Sociedad 14th (4 points), Lyon 12th (6 points).
- Form in the competition: Real Sociedad 1W 1D 1L (8:3), Lyon 2W 0D 1L (5:6).
- H2H: 2 matches: Real Sociedad 2W 0D 0L, goals 4–0.
- Absences: Real Sociedad 3, Lyon 5.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: who is missing
Real Sociedad
- L. Beitiaankle injury · will miss the match
- A. Odriozolaknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Zakharyanankle injury · will miss the match
Lyon
- S. Kangoconcussion · will miss the match
- T. Mortongroin injury · will miss the match
- L. Opendaabsence · will miss the match
- M. Ouedraogoknee injury · will miss the match
- P. Sulcknee injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 4 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 5 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3-0-0 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2-1-0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 13 |  Rennes | 3 | 1-2-0 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Lillestrøm | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 |  Lech Poznań | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 |  Plzeň | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
Real Sociedad
Home and away
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Real Sociedad are 14th with 4 points after 3 matches (1W 1D 1L), whereas Lyon are 12th with 6 points (2W 0D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Real Sociedad have scored 2.7 and conceded 1.0 goals per game on average in this competition; Lyon average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Real Sociedad: 1W 1D 1L, goals 8–3; Lyon: 2W 0D 1L, goals 5–6.
- Head to head. In their 2 meetings so far, Real Sociedad have 2 wins, Lyon have 0 wins and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 4–0.
What to expect
Real Sociedad should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.4%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.53), and our probability for it is 62%. We estimate both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 2; Real Sociedad 2 wins, 0 draws, Lyon 0 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.0 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Real Sociedad 8–3, Lyon 5–6.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 61%.
- Absent: Real Sociedad 3, Lyon 5.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 62%, best available odds 1.53). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Real Sociedad are missing: L. Beitia, A. Odriozola, A. Zakharyan. Lyon are without: S. Kango, T. Morton, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Real SociedadWDLLyonLWWReal Sociedad vs Lyon: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Real Sociedad vs Lyon: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
Our result tip is Real Sociedad to win (odds 1.91), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.53). The safer pick is Real Sociedad or draw (1X).
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
Our probabilities: Real Sociedad to win 51%, a draw 25%, Lyon to win 24%.
What time and where is kick-off?
5 November 2026, kick-off at 17:45, at Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastián.
Who will be missing?
Real Sociedad: L. Beitia, A. Odriozola, A. Zakharyan. Lyon: S. Kango, T. Morton, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 61% (odds 1.57); under 2.5 goals is at 39% (odds 2.48).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 62% probability (odds 1.53).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.4%); after that come 2–1 (9.6%) and 1–0 (8.3%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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