Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Athletic Club are at home to Real Sociedad on 1 November 2026 · 20:00 at San Mamés Stadium (Bilbao), with Alejandro Hernández as the referee. Our favourites are Athletic Club (47%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.07 | 3.76 | 3.79 |
| Market average | 2.01 | 3.60 | 3.62 |
| Lowest odds | 1.95 | 3.33 | 3.32 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.24 | 75.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.84 | 1.79 | 53.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 2.05 | 46.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.05 | 2.92 | 32.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.64 | 56.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.15 | 43.3% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 1/11/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Athletic Club 1–1 Real Sociedad, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Athletic Club 7th (15 points), Real Sociedad 5th (19 points).
- Form in the competition: Athletic Club 3W 3D 3L (12:9), Real Sociedad 6W 1D 3L (19:18).
- H2H: 37 matches: Athletic Club 13W 9D 15L, goals 39–43.
- Absences: Athletic Club 3, Real Sociedad 3.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: who is missing
Athletic Club
- U. Egiluzknee injury · will miss the match
- G. Guruzetaknee injury · will miss the match
- I. Ruiz de Galarretahamstring injury · will miss the match
Real Sociedad
- L. Beitiaankle injury · will miss the match
- A. Odriozolaknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Zakharyanankle injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 |  Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Athletic Club
Home and away
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Athletic Club are 7th with 15 points after 10 matches (4W 3D 3L), whereas Real Sociedad are 5th with 19 points (6W 1D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Athletic Club have scored 1.3 and conceded 1.0 goals per game on average in this competition; Real Sociedad average 1.9 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Athletic Club: 3W 3D 3L, goals 12–9; Real Sociedad: 6W 1D 3L, goals 19–18.
- Head to head. In their 37 meetings so far, Athletic Club have 13 wins, Real Sociedad have 15 wins and 9 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 39–43.
What to expect
Athletic Club should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Real Sociedad are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.70), and our probability for it is 57%. We estimate both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 37; Athletic Club 13 wins, 9 draws, Real Sociedad 15 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.2 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Athletic Club 12–9, Real Sociedad 19–18.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 53%.
- Absent: Athletic Club 3, Real Sociedad 3.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 57%, best available odds 1.70). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Athletic Club are missing: U. Egiluz, G. Guruzeta, I. Ruiz de Galarreta. Real Sociedad are without: L. Beitia, A. Odriozola, A. Zakharyan. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Athletic ClubWWLDDReal SociedadLWWWWAthletic Club vs Real Sociedad: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Our result tip is Athletic Club to win (odds 2.07), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.70). The safer pick is Athletic Club or draw (1X).
Who will win Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Our probabilities: Athletic Club to win 47%, a draw 26%, Real Sociedad to win 26%.
What time and where is kick-off?
1 November 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao. Referee: Alejandro Hernández.
Who will be missing?
Athletic Club: U. Egiluz, G. Guruzeta, I. Ruiz de Galarreta. Real Sociedad: L. Beitia, A. Odriozola, A. Zakharyan. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 53% (odds 1.84); under 2.5 goals is at 47% (odds 2.12).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 57% probability (odds 1.70).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.8%); after that come 1–0 (10.2%) and 2–1 (9.4%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.