Bet with MINO CASINO →QPR are at home to Burnley on 3 November 2026 · 19:45 at Loftus Road (London), with Tom Reeves as the referee. Our favourites are QPR (47%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
QPR vs Burnley: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, QPR are 9th with 20 points after 13 matches (5W 5D 3L), whereas Burnley are 22nd with 9 points (1W 6D 6L).
- Attack and defence. QPR have scored 1.6 and conceded 1.2 goals per game on average in this competition; Burnley average 1.3 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. QPR: 5W 5D 3L, goals 21–16; Burnley: 1W 6D 6L, goals 17–25.
- Head to head. In their 10 meetings so far, QPR have 2 wins, Burnley have 5 wins and 3 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 8–17.
What to expect
QPR should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.1%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), and our probability for it is 64%. We estimate both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 10; QPR 2 wins, 3 draws, Burnley 5 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.5 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: QPR 21–16, Burnley 17–25.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 56%.
- Absent: QPR 4, Burnley 10.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 59%, best available odds 1.57). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
QPR are missing: R. Burrell, T. Lamptey, N. Madsen, A. S. Mbengue. Burnley are without: Z. Amdouni, B. Amos, J. Beyer, J. Bruun Larsen, B. Humphreys, H. Mejbri, M. Obafemi, S. Sambo, M. Tresor Ndayishimiye, A. Broja. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
QPR vs Burnley: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.04 | 3.85 | 3.70 |
| Market average | 1.99 | 3.62 | 3.49 |
| Lowest odds | 1.95 | 3.26 | 3.16 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 1.20 | 77.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 1.68 | 56.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 2.16 | 43.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.62 | 35.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.57 | 59.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.28 | 40.8% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 08:19. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: QPR 1–1 Burnley, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: QPR 9th (20 points), Burnley 22nd (9 points).
- Form in the competition: QPR 5W 5D 3L (21:16), Burnley 1W 6D 6L (17:25).
- H2H: 10 matches: QPR 2W 3D 5L, goals 8–17.
- Absences: QPR 4, Burnley 10.
Who will win QPR vs Burnley?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
QPR vs Burnley: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
QPR vs Burnley: who is missing
QPR
- R. Burrellnot in the squad · will miss the match
- T. Lampteynot in the squad · will miss the match
- N. Madseninjury · will miss the match
- A. S. Mbengueknee injury · will miss the match
Burnley
- Z. Amdouniankle injury · will miss the match
- B. Amosnot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Beyerhamstring injury · will miss the match
- J. Bruun Larseninjury · will miss the match
- B. Humphreysmuscle injury · will miss the match
- H. Mejbrihamstring injury · will miss the match
- M. Obafeminot in the squad · will miss the match
- S. Sambonot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Tresor Ndayishimiyenot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Brojainjury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
QPR vs Burnley: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 | QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
QPR
Home and away
QPR vs Burnley: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
QPRLWLWDBurnleyDLLDWQPR vs Burnley: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
QPR vs Burnley: questions and answers
What is the best tip for QPR vs Burnley?
Our result tip is QPR to win (odds 2.04), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50). The safer pick is QPR or draw (1X).
Who will win QPR vs Burnley?
Our probabilities: QPR to win 47%, a draw 26%, Burnley to win 27%.
What time and where is kick-off?
3 November 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Loftus Road, London. Referee: Tom Reeves.
Who will be missing?
QPR: R. Burrell, T. Lamptey, N. Madsen, A. S. Mbengue. Burnley: Z. Amdouni, B. Amos, J. Beyer, J. Bruun Larsen, B. Humphreys, H. Mejbri, M. Obafemi, S. Sambo, M. Tresor Ndayishimiye, A. Broja. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 56% (odds 1.73); under 2.5 goals is at 44% (odds 2.22).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 59% probability (odds 1.57).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.1%); after that come 2–1 (9.5%) and 1–0 (8.9%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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