Bet with MINO CASINO →Watford v Lincoln is on 3 November 2026 · 19:45 at Vicarage Road (Watford); James Bell takes charge. We think it is an even game. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Watford vs Lincoln: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Watford are 21st with 11 points after 13 matches (3W 2D 8L), whereas Lincoln are 16th with 15 points (4W 3D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Watford have scored 0.9 and conceded 1.8 goals per game on average in this competition; Lincoln average 1.1 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Watford: 3W 2D 8L, goals 12–23; Lincoln: 4W 3D 6L, goals 14–23.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.4%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Lincoln are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.70), and our probability for it is 56%. We estimate both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Prediction: key points
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Watford 12–23, Lincoln 14–23.
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 50%.
- Absent: Watford 5, Lincoln 3.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 56%, best available odds 1.70). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Watford are missing: M. Antonio, K. Baah, E. Bove, S. Coulibaly, J. Ngakia. Lincoln are without: T. Darikwa, M. Melia, E. Wheatley. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Watford vs Lincoln: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.60 | 3.48 | 2.85 |
| Market average | 2.49 | 3.34 | 2.72 |
| Lowest odds | 2.33 | 3.11 | 2.62 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.26 | 74.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 1.88 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.97 | 1.91 | 49.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.20 | 3.11 | 30.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.66 | 55.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.11 | 44.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 08:19. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Watford 1–1 Lincoln, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Watford 21st (11 points), Lincoln 16th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: Watford 3W 2D 8L (12:23), Lincoln 4W 3D 6L (14:23).
- Absences: Watford 5, Lincoln 3.
Who will win Watford vs Lincoln?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Watford vs Lincoln: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Watford vs Lincoln: who is missing
Watford
- M. Antonionot in the squad · will miss the match
- K. Baahknock · will miss the match
- E. Boveknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Coulibalyhamstring injury · will miss the match
- J. Ngakiathigh injury · will miss the match
Lincoln
- T. Darikwaknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Meliathigh injury · will miss the match
- E. Wheatleynot in the squad · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Watford vs Lincoln: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 | Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Watford
Home and away
Watford vs Lincoln: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
WatfordLLWLLLincolnLWDLLReturns calculator
Watford vs Lincoln: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Watford vs Lincoln?
Our result tip is Watford or draw (1X) (odds 1.45), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.70). The safer pick is Watford or draw (1X).
Who will win Watford vs Lincoln?
Our probabilities: Watford to win 38%, a draw 28%, Lincoln to win 34%.
What time and where is kick-off?
3 November 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Vicarage Road, Watford. Referee: James Bell.
Who will be missing?
Watford: M. Antonio, K. Baah, E. Bove, S. Coulibaly, J. Ngakia. Lincoln: T. Darikwa, M. Melia, E. Wheatley. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 50% (odds 1.91); under 2.5 goals is at 50% (odds 1.97).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 56% probability (odds 1.70).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.4%); after that come 1–0 (9.5%) and 0–1 (9.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.