Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lincoln are at home to Burnley on 24 October 2026 · 15:00 at Sincil Bank (Lincoln), with Thomas Parsons, England as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Lincoln vs Burnley: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Lincoln are 16th with 15 points after 13 matches (4W 3D 6L), whereas Burnley are 22nd with 9 points (1W 6D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Lincoln have scored 0.8 and conceded 1.7 goals per game on average in this competition; Burnley average 1.5 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lincoln: 3W 3D 5L, goals 9–19; Burnley: 1W 5D 5L, goals 16–21.
- Head to head. In their 2 meetings so far, Lincoln have 2 wins, Burnley have 0 wins and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 5–1.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.4%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Lincoln are stronger, but the betting market gives the away side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.70), and our probability for it is 56%. We estimate both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 2; Lincoln 2 wins, 0 draws, Burnley 0 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.0 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Lincoln 9–19, Burnley 16–21.
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 50%.
- Absent: Lincoln 5, Burnley 15.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 56%, best available odds 1.70). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Lincoln are missing: T. Darikwa, F. Draper, T. Hamer, M. Melia, E. Wheatley. Burnley are without: E. Agyei, A. Ahmedhodzic, Z. Amdouni, A. Barnes, J. Beyer, J. Bruun Larsen, B. Humphreys, H. Mejbri, M. Obafemi, A. Ramsey, S. Sambo, M. Tresor Ndayishimiye, J. Vardy, J. Banel, J. Cullen. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Lincoln vs Burnley: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.88 | 3.53 | 2.55 |
| Market average | 2.75 | 3.41 | 2.49 |
| Lowest odds | 2.65 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.27 | 73.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.88 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.90 | 49.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.30 | 3.11 | 30.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.66 | 55.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.11 | 44.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 24/10/26, 13:58. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.0%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Lincoln 1–1 Burnley, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Lincoln 16th (15 points), Burnley 22nd (9 points).
- Form in the competition: Lincoln 3W 3D 5L (9:19), Burnley 1W 5D 5L (16:21).
- H2H: 2 matches: Lincoln 2W 0D 0L, goals 5–1.
- Absences: Lincoln 5, Burnley 15.
Who will win Lincoln vs Burnley?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Lincoln vs Burnley: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Lincoln vs Burnley: who is missing
Lincoln
- T. Darikwaknee injury · will miss the match
- F. Draperabsence · will miss the match
- T. Hamerred card · will miss the match
- M. Meliathigh injury · will miss the match
- E. Wheatleynot in the squad · will miss the match
Burnley
- E. Agyeiabsence · will miss the match
- A. Ahmedhodzicknock · will miss the match
- Z. Amdouniankle injury · will miss the match
- A. Barnesmuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Beyerhamstring injury · will miss the match
- J. Bruun Larseninjury · will miss the match
- B. Humphreysmuscle injury · will miss the match
- H. Mejbrihamstring injury · will miss the match
- M. Obafeminot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Ramseyhamstring injury · will miss the match
- S. Sambonot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Tresor Ndayishimiyenot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Vardyinjury · will miss the match
- J. Banelmuscle injury · doubtful
- J. Cullenknee injury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Lincoln vs Burnley: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Lincoln
Home and away
Lincoln vs Burnley: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
LincolnLWDLLBurnleyDLLDWLincoln vs Burnley: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Lincoln vs Burnley: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Lincoln vs Burnley?
Our result tip is Draw or Burnley (X2) (odds 1.47), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.70). The safer pick is Draw or Burnley (X2).
Who will win Lincoln vs Burnley?
Our probabilities: Lincoln to win 34%, a draw 28%, Burnley to win 38%.
What time and where is kick-off?
24 October 2026, kick-off at 15:00, at Sincil Bank, Lincoln. Referee: Thomas Parsons, England.
Who will be missing?
Lincoln: T. Darikwa, F. Draper, T. Hamer, M. Melia, E. Wheatley. Burnley: E. Agyei, A. Ahmedhodzic, Z. Amdouni, A. Barnes, J. Beyer, J. Bruun Larsen, B. Humphreys, H. Mejbri, M. Obafemi, A. Ramsey, S. Sambo, M. Tresor Ndayishimiye, J. Vardy, J. Banel, J. Cullen. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 50% (odds 1.93); under 2.5 goals is at 50% (odds 1.95).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 56% probability (odds 1.70).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.4%); after that come 0–1 (9.5%) and 1–0 (9.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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