Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Burnley are at home to Wolves on 16 October 2026 · 20:00 at Turf Moor (Burnley), with Lewis Smith, England as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Burnley vs Wolves: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Burnley are 22nd with 9 points after 13 matches (1W 6D 6L), whereas Wolves are 3rd with 24 points (7W 3D 3L).
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.62), and our probability for it is 58%. We estimate both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 54%.
- Absent: Burnley 0, Wolves 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 58%, best available odds 1.62). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Burnley are missing: no absences. Wolves are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Burnley vs Wolves: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.07 | 3.60 | 2.35 |
| Market average | 2.98 | 3.51 | 2.26 |
| Lowest odds | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.18 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 1.23 | 75.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 1.76 | 53.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.03 | 46.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.08 | 2.81 | 33.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.60 | 58.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.21 | 42.0% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 16/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Burnley 1–1 Wolves, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Burnley 22nd (9 points), Wolves 3rd (24 points).
- Absences: Burnley 0, Wolves 0.
Who will win Burnley vs Wolves?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Burnley vs Wolves: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Burnley vs Wolves: who is missing
Burnley
- No reported absences
Wolves
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Burnley vs Wolves: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 | Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Burnley
Home and away
Returns calculator
Burnley vs Wolves: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Burnley vs Wolves?
Over 2.5 goals (1.85); Draw or Wolves (X2) (1.36).
Who will win Burnley vs Wolves?
Our probabilities: Burnley to win 32%, a draw 27%, Wolves to win 42%.
What time and where is kick-off?
16 October 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Turf Moor, Burnley. Referee: Lewis Smith, England.
Who will be missing?
Burnley: no absences. Wolves: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 54% (odds 1.85); under 2.5 goals is at 46% (odds 2.10).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 58% probability (odds 1.62).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.9%); after that come 0–1 (9.1%) and 1–2 (8.9%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.