Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Southampton meet QPR on 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton), refereed by Tim Robinson. Southampton (49%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Southampton vs QPR: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Southampton are 5th with 23 points after 13 matches (8W 3D 2L), whereas QPR are 9th with 20 points (5W 5D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Southampton have scored 2.0 and conceded 1.0 goals per game on average in this competition; QPR average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Southampton: 7W 3D 2L, goals 24–12; QPR: 5W 5D 2L, goals 20–12.
- Head to head. In their 9 meetings so far, Southampton have 8 wins, QPR have 1 win and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 21–7.
What to expect
Southampton should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.7%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.52), and our probability for it is 62%. We estimate both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 9; Southampton 8 wins, 0 draws, QPR 1 win.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.1 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Southampton 24–12, QPR 20–12.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 60%.
- Absent: Southampton 2, QPR 5.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 62%, best available odds 1.52). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Southampton are missing: F. Downes, C. Larin. QPR are without: R. Burrell, T. Lamptey, N. Madsen, A. S. Mbengue, J. Clarke-Salter. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Southampton vs QPR: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.00 | 3.95 | 3.79 |
| Market average | 1.91 | 3.74 | 3.63 |
| Lowest odds | 1.78 | 3.40 | 3.44 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.17 | 80.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 1.57 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.42 | 2.31 | 40.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.54 | 2.44 | 38.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.52 | 1.50 | 61.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.55 | 2.44 | 38.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 31/10/26, 13:40. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Southampton 1–1 QPR, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Southampton 5th (23 points), QPR 9th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Southampton 7W 3D 2L (24:12), QPR 5W 5D 2L (20:12).
- H2H: 9 matches: Southampton 8W 0D 1L, goals 21–7.
- Absences: Southampton 2, QPR 5.
Who will win Southampton vs QPR?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Southampton vs QPR: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Southampton vs QPR: who is missing
Southampton
- F. Downesankle injury · doubtful
- C. Larinhamstring injury · doubtful
QPR
- R. Burrellnot in the squad · will miss the match
- T. Lampteynot in the squad · will miss the match
- N. Madseninjury · will miss the match
- A. S. Mbengueknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Clarke-Salterinjury · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Southampton vs QPR: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 | Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 | QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Southampton
Home and away
Southampton vs QPR: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
SouthamptonWWDWWQPRLWLWDSouthampton vs QPR: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Southampton vs QPR: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Southampton vs QPR?
Our result tip is Southampton to win (odds 2.00), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.52). The safer pick is Southampton or draw (1X).
Who will win Southampton vs QPR?
Our probabilities: Southampton to win 49%, a draw 25%, QPR to win 26%.
What time and where is kick-off?
31 October 2026, kick-off at 15:00, at St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton. Referee: Tim Robinson.
Who will be missing?
Southampton: F. Downes, C. Larin. QPR: R. Burrell, T. Lamptey, N. Madsen, A. S. Mbengue, J. Clarke-Salter. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 60% (odds 1.62); under 2.5 goals is at 40% (odds 2.42).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 62% probability (odds 1.52).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.7%); after that come 2–1 (9.6%) and 1–0 (8.5%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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