Bet with MINO CASINO →Napoli meet Lazio on 8 November 2026 · 11:30 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples). We expect very little between them. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Napoli vs Lazio: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Napoli are 8th with 14 points after 10 matches (4W 2D 4L), whereas Lazio are 1st with 28 points (9W 1D 0L).
- Attack and defence. Napoli have scored 1.7 and conceded 1.3 goals per game on average in this competition; Lazio average 2.4 scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Napoli: 4W 2D 4L, goals 17–13; Lazio: 9W 1D 0L, goals 24–8.
- Head to head. In their 34 meetings so far, Napoli have 19 wins, Lazio have 10 wins and 5 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 66–41.
What to expect
Napoli should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Lazio are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.62), and our probability for it is 58%. We estimate both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 34; Napoli 19 wins, 5 draws, Lazio 10 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.1 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Napoli 17–13, Lazio 24–8.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 54%.
- Absent: Napoli 1, Lazio 1.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 58%, best available odds 1.62). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Napoli are missing: A. Buongiorno. Lazio are without: Patric. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Napoli vs Lazio: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.22 | 3.83 | 3.34 |
| Market average | 2.14 | 3.58 | 3.14 |
| Lowest odds | 2.10 | 3.16 | 2.92 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 1.24 | 76.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.83 | 1.76 | 54.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.13 | 2.08 | 45.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.97 | 2.82 | 33.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.61 | 57.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.20 | 42.3% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:10. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Napoli 1–1 Lazio, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Napoli 8th (14 points), Lazio 1st (28 points).
- Form in the competition: Napoli 4W 2D 4L (17:13), Lazio 9W 1D 0L (24:8).
- H2H: 34 matches: Napoli 19W 5D 10L, goals 66–41.
- Absences: Napoli 1, Lazio 1.
Who will win Napoli vs Lazio?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Napoli vs Lazio: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Napoli vs Lazio: who is missing
Napoli
- A. Buongiornoabsence · will miss the match
Lazio
- Patricabsence · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Napoli vs Lazio: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 | Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Napoli
Home and away
Napoli vs Lazio: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
NapoliLWDLWLazioWWWWWNapoli vs Lazio: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Napoli vs Lazio: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Napoli vs Lazio?
Napoli -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.94); Both teams to score (1.62).
Who will win Napoli vs Lazio?
Our probabilities: Napoli to win 44%, a draw 26%, Lazio to win 30%.
What time and where is kick-off?
8 November 2026, kick-off at 11:30, at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples.
Who will be missing?
Napoli: A. Buongiorno. Lazio: Patric. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 54% (odds 1.83); under 2.5 goals is at 46% (odds 2.13).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 58% probability (odds 1.62).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.8%); after that come 1–0 (9.4%) and 2–1 (9.1%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.