Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lazio are at home to Cagliari on 1 November 2026 · 14:00 at Stadio Olimpico (Rome), with Andrea Colombo as the referee. Our favourites are Lazio (64%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Lazio vs Cagliari: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Lazio are 1st with 28 points after 10 matches (9W 1D 0L), whereas Cagliari are 12th with 13 points (4W 1D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Lazio have scored 2.4 and conceded 0.8 goals per game on average in this competition; Cagliari average 0.9 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lazio: 8W 1D 0L, goals 22–7; Cagliari: 4W 1D 4L, goals 8–13.
- Head to head. In their 28 meetings so far, Lazio have 22 wins, Cagliari have 2 wins and 4 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 55–19.
What to expect
Lazio should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–0 (12.5%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.87), and our probability for it is 53%. We estimate both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 28; Lazio 22 wins, 4 draws, Cagliari 2 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.6 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Lazio 22–7, Cagliari 8–13.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 53%.
- Absent: Lazio 4, Cagliari 2.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: no
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: no (probability 51%, best available odds 1.85). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Lazio are missing: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson, A. Marusic, N. Rovella. Cagliari are without: M. Felici, R. Idrissi. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Lazio vs Cagliari: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.53 | 4.60 | 7.52 |
| Market average | 1.47 | 4.40 | 6.75 |
| Lowest odds | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.25 | 75.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.87 | 1.80 | 53.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.11 | 2.03 | 47.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.21 | 2.99 | 31.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.91 | 48.6% |
| BTTS – no | 1.85 | 1.81 | 51.4% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 1/11/26, 12:55. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Lazio 1–0 Cagliari, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lazio 1st (28 points), Cagliari 12th (13 points).
- Form in the competition: Lazio 8W 1D 0L (22:7), Cagliari 4W 1D 4L (8:13).
- H2H: 28 matches: Lazio 22W 4D 2L, goals 55–19.
- Absences: Lazio 4, Cagliari 2.
Who will win Lazio vs Cagliari?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Lazio vs Cagliari: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Lazio vs Cagliari: who is missing
Lazio
- A. Furlanettoknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Gudmundssonshoulder injury · will miss the match
- A. Marusicmuscle injury · will miss the match
- N. Rovellacalf injury · will miss the match
Cagliari
- M. Feliciknee injury · will miss the match
- R. Idrissiknee injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Lazio vs Cagliari: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 | Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Lazio
Home and away
Lazio vs Cagliari: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
LazioWWWWWCagliariLLLLDLazio vs Cagliari: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Lazio vs Cagliari: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Lazio vs Cagliari?
Over 2.5 goals (1.87); Lazio to win (1.53).
Who will win Lazio vs Cagliari?
Our probabilities: Lazio to win 64%, a draw 22%, Cagliari to win 14%.
What time and where is kick-off?
1 November 2026, kick-off at 14:00, at Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Referee: Andrea Colombo.
Who will be missing?
Lazio: A. Furlanetto, A. Gudmundsson, A. Marusic, N. Rovella. Cagliari: M. Felici, R. Idrissi. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 53% (odds 1.87); under 2.5 goals is at 47% (odds 2.11).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 49% probability (odds 1.95).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–0 (12.5%); after that come 2–0 (12.2%) and 1–1 (10.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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