Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Toulouse are at home to Estac Troyes on 25 October 2026 · 16:15 at Stadium Municipal (Toulouse), with Geoffrey Kubler as the referee. Our favourites are Toulouse (63%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.57 | 4.70 | 6.50 |
| Market average | 1.52 | 4.47 | 6.11 |
| Lowest odds | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.17 | 80.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 1.58 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.49 | 2.41 | 39.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.39 | 39.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.65 | 56.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.14 | 43.6% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 25/10/26, 13:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Toulouse 2–1 Estac Troyes, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Toulouse 12th (10 points), Estac Troyes 16th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Toulouse 2W 3D 2L (12:11), Estac Troyes 1W 1D 5L (5:16).
- H2H: 12 matches: Toulouse 7W 5D 0L, goals 23–5.
- Absences: Toulouse 2, Estac Troyes 4.
Who will win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: who is missing
Toulouse
- M. Nifloreinjury · will miss the match
- S. Oppongcalf injury · will miss the match
Estac Troyes
- I. Bourahip injury · will miss the match
- Y. Koneknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Ouzenadjiknee injury · will miss the match
- Y. Titiabsence · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Toulouse
Home and away
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Toulouse are 12th with 10 points after 9 matches (2W 4D 3L), whereas Estac Troyes are 16th with 8 points (2W 2D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Toulouse have scored 1.7 and conceded 1.6 goals per game on average in this competition; Estac Troyes average 0.7 scored and 2.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Toulouse: 2W 3D 2L, goals 12–11; Estac Troyes: 1W 1D 5L, goals 5–16.
- Head to head. In their 12 meetings so far, Toulouse have 7 wins, Estac Troyes have 0 wins and 5 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 23–5.
What to expect
Toulouse should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.61), and our probability for it is 60%. We estimate both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 12; Toulouse 7 wins, 5 draws, Estac Troyes 0 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.3 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Toulouse 12–11, Estac Troyes 5–16.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 60%.
- Absent: Toulouse 2, Estac Troyes 4.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Alternative pick: Over 2.5 goals (probability 60%, best available odds 1.64). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Toulouse are missing: M. Niflore, S. Oppong. Estac Troyes are without: I. Boura, Y. Kone, A. Ouzenadji, Y. Titi. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
ToulouseLDWDWEstac TroyesWDLLLToulouse vs Estac Troyes: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Our result tip is Toulouse to win (odds 1.57), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.61). The safer pick is Toulouse or draw (1X).
Who will win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Our probabilities: Toulouse to win 63%, a draw 21%, Estac Troyes to win 16%.
What time and where is kick-off?
25 October 2026, kick-off at 16:15, at Stadium Municipal, Toulouse. Referee: Geoffrey Kubler.
Who will be missing?
Toulouse: M. Niflore, S. Oppong. Estac Troyes: I. Boura, Y. Kone, A. Ouzenadji, Y. Titi. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 60% (odds 1.64); under 2.5 goals is at 40% (odds 2.49).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 56% probability (odds 1.70).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.9%); after that come 2–0 (9.9%) and 1–1 (9.5%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.