Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Le Mans are at home to Toulouse on 16 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stade Marie-Marvingt (Le Mans), with A. Petit as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Le Mans vs Toulouse: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.21 | 3.70 | 2.31 |
| Market average | 3.13 | 3.59 | 2.25 |
| Lowest odds | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.17 | 79.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 1.64 | 58.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 2.28 | 41.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.67 | 2.50 | 37.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.51 | 61.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.50 | 2.42 | 38.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 16/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 4.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Le Mans 1–1 Toulouse, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Le Mans 17th (7 points), Toulouse 12th (10 points).
- Absences: Le Mans 0, Toulouse 0.
Who will win Le Mans vs Toulouse?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Le Mans vs Toulouse: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Le Mans vs Toulouse: who is missing
Le Mans
- No reported absences
Toulouse
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Le Mans vs Toulouse: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
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Le Mans
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Le Mans vs Toulouse: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Le Mans are 17th with 7 points after 9 matches (1W 4D 4L), whereas Toulouse are 12th with 10 points (2W 4D 3L).
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.3%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.57), and our probability for it is 62%. We estimate both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 58%.
- Absent: Le Mans 0, Toulouse 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 62%, best available odds 1.55). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Le Mans are missing: no absences. Toulouse are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
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Le Mans vs Toulouse: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Our result tip is Draw or Toulouse (X2) (odds 1.40), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.57). The safer pick is Draw or Toulouse (X2).
Who will win Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Our probabilities: Le Mans to win 31%, a draw 27%, Toulouse to win 43%.
What time and where is kick-off?
16 October 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans. Referee: A. Petit.
Who will be missing?
Le Mans: no absences. Toulouse: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 58% (odds 1.70); under 2.5 goals is at 42% (odds 2.38).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 62% probability (odds 1.55).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.3%); after that come 1–2 (9.0%) and 0–1 (8.4%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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