Bet with MINO CASINO →Lens v Toulouse is on 21 November 2026 · 19:45 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens). We think Lens (49%) are favourites. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Lens vs Toulouse: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Lens are 9th with 13 points after 9 matches (4W 1D 4L), whereas Toulouse are 12th with 10 points (2W 4D 3L).
What to expect
Lens should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (10.5%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.55), and our probability for it is 62%. We estimate both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 61%.
- Absent: Lens 0, Toulouse 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 62%, best available odds 1.55). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Lens are missing: no absences. Toulouse are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Lens vs Toulouse: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.02 | 4.07 | 3.66 |
| Market average | 1.95 | 3.84 | 3.59 |
| Lowest odds | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.16 | 80.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.63 | 1.59 | 60.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.49 | 2.44 | 39.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.39 | 39.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.55 | 1.52 | 61.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.47 | 2.43 | 38.4% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 03:21. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Lens 1–1 Toulouse, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lens 9th (13 points), Toulouse 12th (10 points).
- Absences: Lens 0, Toulouse 0.
Who will win Lens vs Toulouse?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Lens vs Toulouse: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Most likely correct scores
Lens vs Toulouse: who is missing
Lens
- No reported absences
Toulouse
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Lens vs Toulouse: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 | Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
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Lens vs Toulouse: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Lens vs Toulouse?
Lens +0 (Asian handicap) (1.54); Both teams to score (1.55).
Who will win Lens vs Toulouse?
Our probabilities: Lens to win 49%, a draw 25%, Toulouse to win 26%.
What time and where is kick-off?
21 November 2026, kick-off at 19:45, at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens.
Who will be missing?
Lens: no absences. Toulouse: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 61% (odds 1.63); under 2.5 goals is at 39% (odds 2.49).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 62% probability (odds 1.55).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (10.5%); after that come 2–1 (9.5%) and 1–0 (8.1%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
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