Bet with MINO CASINO →Estrela are at home to Benfica on 8 November 2026 · 20:30 at Campo Municipal dos Prazeres (Amadora). Our favourites are Benfica (76%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Estrela vs Benfica: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Estrela are 12th with 10 points after 10 matches (2W 4D 4L), whereas Benfica are 2nd with 25 points (8W 1D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Estrela have scored 1.5 and conceded 1.9 goals per game on average in this competition; Benfica average 2.9 scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Estrela: 2W 4D 4L, goals 15–19; Benfica: 7W 1D 1L, goals 26–8.
- Head to head. In their 9 meetings so far, Estrela have 0 wins, Benfica have 9 wins and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 5–29.
What to expect
Benfica should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–3, about 4 goals combined, and 0–2 (11.3%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
At 1.27, the odds on the result are low, so take a look at the goals markets: Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.47), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 9; Estrela 0 wins, 0 draws, Benfica 9 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.8 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Estrela 15–19, Benfica 26–8.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 65%.
- Absent: Estrela 0, Benfica 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative pick: Under 3.5 goals (probability 55%, best available odds 1.76). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Estrela are missing: no absences. Benfica are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Estrela vs Benfica: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 12.00 | 6.74 | 1.27 |
| Market average | 10.82 | 6.27 | 1.23 |
| Lowest odds | 9.50 | 5.75 | 1.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.12 | 83.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.47 | 1.43 | 65.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.81 | 2.70 | 34.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.16 | 2.11 | 44.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.00 | 1.86 | 49.9% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.85 | 50.1% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 02:45. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Estrela 0–2 Benfica, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Estrela 12th (10 points), Benfica 2nd (25 points).
- Form in the competition: Estrela 2W 4D 4L (15:19), Benfica 7W 1D 1L (26:8).
- H2H: 9 matches: Estrela 0W 0D 9L, goals 5–29.
- Absences: Estrela 0, Benfica 0.
Who will win Estrela vs Benfica?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Estrela vs Benfica: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Estrela vs Benfica: who is missing
Estrela
- No reported absences
Benfica
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Estrela vs Benfica: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 | Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Estrela
Home and away
Estrela vs Benfica: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
EstrelaLLLLDBenficaWWWLWEstrela vs Benfica: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Estrela vs Benfica: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Estrela vs Benfica?
Estrela +2 (Asian handicap) (1.82); Over 2.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win Estrela vs Benfica?
Our probabilities: Estrela to win 9%, a draw 15%, Benfica to win 76%.
What time and where is kick-off?
8 November 2026, kick-off at 20:30, at Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, Amadora.
Who will be missing?
Estrela: no absences. Benfica: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 65% (odds 1.47); under 2.5 goals is at 35% (odds 2.81).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 50% probability (odds 2.00).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 0–2 (11.3%); after that come 0–3 (9.8%) and 1–2 (9.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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