Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Benfica are at home to Alverca on 2 November 2026 · 20:15 at Estádio da Luz (Lisbon), with Bruno Pires Costa as the referee. Our favourites are Benfica (85%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Benfica vs Alverca: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.15 | 11.00 | 22.00 |
| Market average | 1.12 | 9.38 | 18.02 |
| Lowest odds | 1.10 | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.08 | 1.05 | 88.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.25 | 75.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | 3.76 | 24.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.76 | 1.68 | 56.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.00 | 1.88 | 49.3% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.83 | 50.7% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 2/11/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Benfica 3–0 Alverca, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Benfica 2nd (25 points), Alverca 10th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Benfica 7W 1D 1L (26:8), Alverca 3W 2D 4L (13:13).
- H2H: 2 matches: Benfica 2W 0D 0L, goals 4–2.
- Absences: Benfica 0, Alverca 0.
Who will win Benfica vs Alverca?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Benfica vs Alverca: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Benfica vs Alverca: who is missing
Benfica
- No reported absences
Alverca
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Benfica vs Alverca: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 | Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 | Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Benfica
Home and away
Benfica vs Alverca: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Benfica are 2nd with 25 points after 10 matches (8W 1D 1L), whereas Alverca are 10th with 11 points (3W 2D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Benfica have scored 2.9 and conceded 0.9 goals per game on average in this competition; Alverca average 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Benfica: 7W 1D 1L, goals 26–8; Alverca: 3W 2D 4L, goals 13–13.
- Head to head. In their 2 meetings so far, Benfica have 2 wins, Alverca have 0 wins and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 4–2.
What to expect
Benfica should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 3–1, about 4 goals combined, and 3–0 (10.5%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
At 1.15, the odds on the result are low, so take a look at the goals markets: Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.76), and our probability for it is 56%. We estimate both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 2; Benfica 2 wins, 0 draws, Alverca 0 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.0 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Benfica 26–8, Alverca 13–13.
- We are expecting about 4 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 75%.
- Absent: Benfica 0, Alverca 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: no
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: no (probability 51%, best available odds 1.91). Our projection of about 4 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Benfica are missing: no absences. Alverca are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Benfica vs Alverca: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
BenficaWWWLWAlvercaLLWWWBenfica vs Alverca: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Benfica vs Alverca: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Benfica vs Alverca?
Our result tip is Benfica to win (odds 1.15), and our goals tip is Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.76). The safer pick is Benfica or draw (1X).
Who will win Benfica vs Alverca?
Our probabilities: Benfica to win 85%, a draw 10%, Alverca to win 5%.
What time and where is kick-off?
2 November 2026, kick-off at 20:15, at Estádio da Luz, Lisbon. Referee: Bruno Pires Costa.
Who will be missing?
Benfica: no absences. Alverca: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 75% (odds 1.28); under 2.5 goals is at 25% (odds 4.00).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 49% probability (odds 2.00).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 3–0 (10.5%); after that come 2–0 (9.9%) and 4–0 (8.4%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.