Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Estrela are at home to Casa Pia on 24 October 2026 · 15:30 at Estádio José Gomes (Amadora), with B. J. Costa as the referee. Our favourites are Estrela (53%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Estrela vs Casa Pia: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.84 | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| Market average | 1.79 | 3.59 | 4.55 |
| Lowest odds | 1.74 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.27 | 73.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.96 | 1.89 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.98 | 1.91 | 49.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.32 | 3.19 | 29.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.81 | 1.77 | 52.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 1.96 | 47.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 24/10/26, 14:24. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Estrela 1–1 Casa Pia, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Estrela 12th (10 points), Casa Pia 17th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Estrela 2W 4D 2L (14:15), Casa Pia 1W 1D 6L (3:17).
- H2H: 11 matches: Estrela 5W 1D 5L, goals 16–14.
- Absences: Estrela 0, Casa Pia 0.
Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Estrela vs Casa Pia: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Estrela vs Casa Pia: who is missing
Estrela
- No reported absences
Casa Pia
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Estrela vs Casa Pia: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Estrela
Home and away
Estrela vs Casa Pia: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Estrela are 12th with 10 points after 10 matches (2W 4D 4L), whereas Casa Pia are 17th with 7 points (2W 1D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Estrela have scored 1.8 and conceded 1.9 goals per game on average in this competition; Casa Pia average 0.4 scored and 2.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Estrela: 2W 4D 2L, goals 14–15; Casa Pia: 1W 1D 6L, goals 3–17.
- Head to head. In their 11 meetings so far, Estrela have 5 wins, Casa Pia have 5 wins and 1 draw have been recorded; the goals stand at 16–14.
What to expect
Estrela should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.4%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.81), and our probability for it is 53%. We estimate both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 11; Estrela 5 wins, 1 draw, Casa Pia 5 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.7 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Estrela 14–15, Casa Pia 3–17.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 50%.
- Absent: Estrela 0, Casa Pia 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 53%, best available odds 1.81). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Estrela are missing: no absences. Casa Pia are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Estrela vs Casa Pia: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
EstrelaLLLLDCasa PiaLWLWLEstrela vs Casa Pia: head to head
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Estrela vs Casa Pia: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Our result tip is Estrela to win (odds 1.84), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.81). The safer pick is Estrela or draw (1X).
Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Our probabilities: Estrela to win 53%, a draw 26%, Casa Pia to win 21%.
What time and where is kick-off?
24 October 2026, kick-off at 15:30, at Estádio José Gomes, Amadora. Referee: B. J. Costa.
Who will be missing?
Estrela: no absences. Casa Pia: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 50% (odds 1.96); under 2.5 goals is at 50% (odds 1.98).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 53% probability (odds 1.81).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.4%); after that come 1–0 (11.4%) and 2–1 (9.7%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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