Bet with MINO CASINO →Alverca are at home to Casa Pia on 7 November 2026 · 18:00 at FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo). Our favourites are Alverca (56%). Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Alverca vs Casa Pia: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Alverca are 10th with 11 points after 10 matches (3W 2D 5L), whereas Casa Pia are 17th with 7 points (2W 1D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Alverca have scored 1.4 and conceded 1.4 goals per game on average in this competition; Casa Pia average 0.5 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Alverca: 3W 2D 4L, goals 13–13; Casa Pia: 2W 1D 7L, goals 5–19.
- Head to head. In their 3 meetings so far, Alverca have 2 wins, Casa Pia have 1 win and 0 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 7–4.
What to expect
Alverca should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–0 (11.8%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.83), and our probability for it is 51%. We estimate both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 3; Alverca 2 wins, 0 draws, Casa Pia 1 win.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.7 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Alverca 13–13, Casa Pia 5–19.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 50%.
- Absent: Alverca 0, Casa Pia 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 51%, best available odds 1.83). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Alverca are missing: no absences. Casa Pia are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Alverca vs Casa Pia: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.72 | 3.95 | 5.16 |
| Market average | 1.69 | 3.76 | 4.86 |
| Lowest odds | 1.65 | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.27 | 73.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.94 | 1.89 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.96 | 1.91 | 49.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.33 | 3.17 | 29.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.83 | 1.81 | 51.4% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.91 | 48.6% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 02:30. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.4%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Alverca 1–0 Casa Pia, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Alverca 10th (11 points), Casa Pia 17th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Alverca 3W 2D 4L (13:13), Casa Pia 2W 1D 7L (5:19).
- H2H: 3 matches: Alverca 2W 0D 1L, goals 7–4.
- Absences: Alverca 0, Casa Pia 0.
Who will win Alverca vs Casa Pia?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Alverca vs Casa Pia: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Alverca vs Casa Pia: who is missing
Alverca
- No reported absences
Casa Pia
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Alverca vs Casa Pia: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 | Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Alverca
Home and away
Alverca vs Casa Pia: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
AlvercaLLWWWCasa PiaLWLWLAlverca vs Casa Pia: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Alverca vs Casa Pia: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Alverca -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.94); Both teams to score (1.83).
Who will win Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Our probabilities: Alverca to win 56%, a draw 25%, Casa Pia to win 19%.
What time and where is kick-off?
7 November 2026, kick-off at 18:00, at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo.
Who will be missing?
Alverca: no absences. Casa Pia: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 50% (odds 1.94); under 2.5 goals is at 50% (odds 1.96).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 51% probability (odds 1.83).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–0 (11.8%); after that come 1–1 (11.2%) and 2–0 (10.3%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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