Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Moreirense v Estrela is on 31 October 2026 · 15:30 at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas (Guimarães); Joao Pinheiro takes charge. We think it is an even game. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Moreirense vs Estrela: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Moreirense are 9th with 14 points after 10 matches (4W 2D 4L), whereas Estrela are 12th with 10 points (2W 4D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Moreirense have scored 1.2 and conceded 1.8 goals per game on average in this competition; Estrela average 1.6 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Moreirense: 3W 2D 4L, goals 11–16; Estrela: 2W 4D 3L, goals 14–17.
- Head to head. In their 10 meetings so far, Moreirense have 5 wins, Estrela have 1 win and 4 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 18–12.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.9%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Moreirense are stronger, but the betting market gives the away side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.82), and our probability for it is 54%. We estimate both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 10; Moreirense 5 wins, 4 draws, Estrela 1 win.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 3.0 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Moreirense 11–16, Estrela 14–17.
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 46%.
- Absent: Moreirense 0, Estrela 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 52%, best available odds 1.85). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Moreirense are missing: no absences. Estrela are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Moreirense vs Estrela: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.21 | 3.45 | 2.51 |
| Market average | 2.97 | 3.22 | 2.39 |
| Lowest odds | 2.58 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.38 | 1.34 | 69.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.17 | 2.07 | 45.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 1.75 | 54.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.82 | 3.71 | 25.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.85 | 1.80 | 51.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 1.93 | 48.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 31/10/26, 14:10. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Moreirense 1–1 Estrela, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Moreirense 9th (14 points), Estrela 12th (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Moreirense 3W 2D 4L (11:16), Estrela 2W 4D 3L (14:17).
- H2H: 10 matches: Moreirense 5W 4D 1L, goals 18–12.
- Absences: Moreirense 0, Estrela 0.
Who will win Moreirense vs Estrela?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Moreirense vs Estrela: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Moreirense vs Estrela: who is missing
Moreirense
- No reported absences
Estrela
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Moreirense vs Estrela: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8-1-1 | 27:8 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 10 | 4-3-3 | 8:7 | 15 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 10 | 3-2-5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2-3-5 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Moreirense
Home and away
Moreirense vs Estrela: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
MoreirenseWWLDWEstrelaLLLLDMoreirense vs Estrela: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Moreirense vs Estrela: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Moreirense vs Estrela?
Moreirense +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.85); Under 2.5 goals (1.82).
Who will win Moreirense vs Estrela?
Our probabilities: Moreirense to win 32%, a draw 29%, Estrela to win 39%.
What time and where is kick-off?
31 October 2026, kick-off at 15:30, at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas, Guimarães. Referee: Joao Pinheiro.
Who will be missing?
Moreirense: no absences. Estrela: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 46% (odds 2.17); under 2.5 goals is at 54% (odds 1.82).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 52% probability (odds 1.85).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.9%); after that come 0–1 (11.2%) and 1–0 (9.9%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.