Bet with MINO CASINO →Derby v Bolton is on 6 November 2026 · 20:00 at Pride Park (Derby). We think it is an even game. Below are the tip, the probability of each result, the absences and a look at the match.
Derby vs Bolton: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 2.23 | 3.65 | 3.15 |
| Market average | 2.20 | 3.54 | 3.01 |
| Lowest odds | 2.15 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.21 | 76.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 1.71 | 54.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 2.07 | 45.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.82 | 2.72 | 34.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.24 | 41.5% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 3/11/26, 08:19. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 7.0%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Derby 1–1 Bolton, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Derby 23rd (7 points), Bolton 19th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Derby 1W 4D 8L (11:25), Bolton 4W 2D 7L (18:26).
- H2H: 16 matches: Derby 8W 5D 3L, goals 26–12.
- Absences: Derby 0, Bolton 0.
Who will win Derby vs Bolton?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Derby vs Bolton: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Derby vs Bolton: who is missing
Derby
- No reported absences
Bolton
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Derby vs Bolton: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 | Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Derby
Home and away
Derby vs Bolton: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Derby are 23rd with 7 points after 13 matches (1W 4D 8L), whereas Bolton are 19th with 14 points (4W 2D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Derby have scored 0.8 and conceded 1.9 goals per game on average in this competition; Bolton average 1.4 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Derby: 1W 4D 8L, goals 11–25; Bolton: 4W 2D 7L, goals 18–26.
- Head to head. In their 16 meetings so far, Derby have 8 wins, Bolton have 3 wins and 5 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 26–12.
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.7%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Here is a twist: the table suggests the Bolton are stronger, but the betting market gives the home side a slightly better chance. With the signs pulling in different directions the match is tough to call, and a more cautious bet is sensible.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.45), and our probability for it is 66%. We estimate both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 16; Derby 8 wins, 5 draws, Bolton 3 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.4 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Derby 11–25, Bolton 18–26.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 55%.
- Absent: Derby 0, Bolton 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 59%, best available odds 1.62). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Derby are missing: no absences. Bolton are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Derby vs Bolton: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
DerbyLDLLDBoltonLLDWLDerby vs Bolton: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Derby vs Bolton: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Derby vs Bolton?
Our result tip is Derby or draw (1X) (odds 1.39), and our goals tip is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.45). The safer pick is Derby or draw (1X).
Who will win Derby vs Bolton?
Our probabilities: Derby to win 43%, a draw 26%, Bolton to win 31%.
What time and where is kick-off?
6 November 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Pride Park, Derby.
Who will be missing?
Derby: no absences. Bolton: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 55% (odds 1.75); under 2.5 goals is at 45% (odds 2.12).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 59% probability (odds 1.62).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.7%); after that come 2–1 (9.0%) and 1–0 (9.0%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.