Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sheffield Utd meet Derby on 24 October 2026 · 12:30 at Bramall Lane (Sheffield), refereed by Stephen Martin, England. Sheffield Utd (53%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Sheffield Utd are 10th with 19 points after 13 matches (5W 4D 4L), whereas Derby are 23rd with 7 points (1W 4D 8L).
- Attack and defence. Sheffield Utd have scored 1.4 and conceded 1.3 goals per game on average in this competition; Derby average 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sheffield Utd: 4W 3D 4L, goals 15–14; Derby: 1W 3D 7L, goals 9–20.
- Head to head. In their 14 meetings so far, Sheffield Utd have 9 wins, Derby have 3 wins and 2 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 22–14.
What to expect
Sheffield Utd should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–1 (11.2%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.45), and our probability for it is 67%. We estimate both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 14; Sheffield Utd 9 wins, 2 draws, Derby 3 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.6 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Sheffield Utd 15–14, Derby 9–20.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 54%.
- Absent: Sheffield Utd 2, Derby 11.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 55%, best available odds 1.73). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Sheffield Utd are missing: M. Doherty, J. Shackleton. Derby are without: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis, J. Widell Zetterstrom, M. Johnston, A. Mowatt. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.82 | 4.01 | 4.75 |
| Market average | 1.77 | 3.82 | 4.33 |
| Lowest odds | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.22 | 76.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.78 | 1.74 | 54.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.13 | 2.05 | 45.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.81 | 33.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.69 | 55.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.12 | 2.07 | 44.9% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 24/10/26, 10:03. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Sheffield Utd 1–1 Derby, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sheffield Utd 10th (19 points), Derby 23rd (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Sheffield Utd 4W 3D 4L (15:14), Derby 1W 3D 7L (9:20).
- H2H: 14 matches: Sheffield Utd 9W 2D 3L, goals 22–14.
- Absences: Sheffield Utd 2, Derby 11.
Who will win Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: who is missing
Sheffield Utd
- M. Dohertyinjury · will miss the match
- J. Shackletonabsence · will miss the match
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- E. Cashinnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Clarkecalf injury · will miss the match
- C. Forsythknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Langasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Murkinhamstring injury · will miss the match
- C. Taylorinjury · will miss the match
- L. Travisankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Widell Zetterstromknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Johnstonnot in the squad · doubtful
- A. Mowattabsence · doubtful
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Sheffield Utd
Home and away
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
Sheffield UtdWDWLWDerbyLDLLDSheffield Utd vs Derby: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Derby +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.88); Under 3.5 goals (1.45).
Who will win Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Our probabilities: Sheffield Utd to win 53%, a draw 25%, Derby to win 22%.
What time and where is kick-off?
24 October 2026, kick-off at 12:30, at Bramall Lane, Sheffield. Referee: Stephen Martin, England.
Who will be missing?
Sheffield Utd: M. Doherty, J. Shackleton. Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis, J. Widell Zetterstrom, M. Johnston, A. Mowatt. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 54% (odds 1.78); under 2.5 goals is at 46% (odds 2.13).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 55% probability (odds 1.73).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (11.2%); after that come 1–0 (10.6%) and 2–1 (9.8%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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