Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Derby are at home to Stoke City on 17 October 2026 · 15:00 at Pride Park Stadium (Derby), with Oliver Langford, England as the referee. We see nothing to choose between them. Further down: our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and our analysis of the match.
Derby vs Stoke City: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Derby are 23rd with 7 points after 13 matches (1W 4D 8L), whereas Stoke City are 7th with 23 points (7W 2D 4L).
What to expect
We think the teams are evenly matched. Our projected score is 1–1, about 2 goals combined, and 1–1 (12.6%) is the single most probable outcome. We think the teams are evenly matched.
Our tip for goals is Both teams to score (odds 1.75), and our probability for it is 54%. We estimate both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 2 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 48%.
- Absent: Derby 0, Stoke City 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 54%, best available odds 1.75). Our projection of about 2 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Derby are missing: no absences. Stoke City are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Derby vs Stoke City: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 3.01 | 3.50 | 2.41 |
| Market average | 2.89 | 3.37 | 2.37 |
| Lowest odds | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 1.29 | 72.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.03 | 1.96 | 48.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.81 | 52.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.51 | 3.33 | 27.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.72 | 53.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.01 | 2.00 | 46.3% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 17/10/26, 12:01. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Derby 1–1 Stoke City, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Derby 23rd (7 points), Stoke City 7th (23 points).
- Absences: Derby 0, Stoke City 0.
Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Derby vs Stoke City: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Derby vs Stoke City: who is missing
Derby
- No reported absences
Stoke City
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Derby vs Stoke City: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Derby
Home and away
Returns calculator
Derby vs Stoke City: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Derby vs Stoke City?
Our result tip is Draw or Stoke City (X2) (odds 1.40), and our goals tip is Both teams to score (odds 1.75). The safer pick is Draw or Stoke City (X2).
Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?
Our probabilities: Derby to win 33%, a draw 28%, Stoke City to win 40%.
What time and where is kick-off?
17 October 2026, kick-off at 15:00, at Pride Park Stadium, Derby. Referee: Oliver Langford, England.
Who will be missing?
Derby: no absences. Stoke City: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 48% (odds 2.03); under 2.5 goals is at 52% (odds 1.86).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 54% probability (odds 1.75).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–1 (12.6%); after that come 0–1 (10.5%) and 1–0 (9.4%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.