Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–5. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bolton meet Middlesbrough on 23 October 2026 · 20:00 at Toughsheet Community Stadium (Horwich), refereed by Simon Hooper, England. Middlesbrough (58%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 5.00 | 4.60 | 1.66 |
| Market average | 4.70 | 4.38 | 1.62 |
| Lowest odds | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.12 | 83.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.44 | 64.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.66 | 35.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.42 | 2.13 | 44.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.48 | 62.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.50 | 37.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 23/10/26, 18:00. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 5.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Bolton 1–2 Middlesbrough, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Bolton 19th (14 points), Middlesbrough 1st (28 points).
- Form in the competition: Bolton 4W 2D 5L (15:18), Middlesbrough 6W 4D 1L (22:16).
- H2H: 15 matches: Bolton 1W 1D 13L, goals 9–34.
- Absences: Bolton 2, Middlesbrough 3.
Who will win Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: who is missing
Bolton
- J. Nelsonnot in the squad · will miss the match
- C. Forino-Josephgroin injury · doubtful
Middlesbrough
- A. Jonescalf injury · will miss the match
- R. Pukstasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Strelecinjury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 | Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Bolton
Home and away
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Bolton are 19th with 14 points after 13 matches (4W 2D 7L), whereas Middlesbrough are 1st with 28 points (8W 4D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Bolton have scored 1.4 and conceded 1.6 goals per game on average in this competition; Middlesbrough average 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Bolton: 4W 2D 5L, goals 15–18; Middlesbrough: 6W 4D 1L, goals 22–16.
- Head to head. In their 15 meetings so far, Bolton have 1 win, Middlesbrough have 13 wins and 1 draw have been recorded; the goals stand at 9–34.
What to expect
Middlesbrough should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 1–2, about 3 goals combined, and 1–2 (9.7%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.56), and our probability for it is 65%. We estimate both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 15; Bolton 1 win, 1 draw, Middlesbrough 13 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.9 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Bolton 15–18, Middlesbrough 22–16.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 65%.
- Absent: Bolton 2, Middlesbrough 3.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 63%, best available odds 1.50). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Bolton are missing: J. Nelson, C. Forino-Joseph. Middlesbrough are without: A. Jones, R. Pukstas, D. Strelec. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
BoltonLLDWLMiddlesbroughWWDWWBolton vs Middlesbrough: head to head
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Bolton vs Middlesbrough: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Our result tip is Middlesbrough to win (odds 1.66), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.56). The safer pick is Draw or Middlesbrough (X2).
Who will win Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
Our probabilities: Bolton to win 20%, a draw 22%, Middlesbrough to win 58%.
What time and where is kick-off?
23 October 2026, kick-off at 20:00, at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich. Referee: Simon Hooper, England.
Who will be missing?
Bolton: J. Nelson, C. Forino-Joseph. Middlesbrough: A. Jones, R. Pukstas, D. Strelec. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 65% (odds 1.56); under 2.5 goals is at 35% (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 63% probability (odds 1.50).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–2 (9.7%); after that come 1–1 (9.1%) and 0–2 (8.1%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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