Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Millwall meet Derby on 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at The Den (London), refereed by Anthony Backhouse. Millwall (57%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Millwall vs Derby: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.70 | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| Market average | 1.64 | 3.90 | 5.02 |
| Lowest odds | 1.60 | 3.45 | 4.35 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.24 | 74.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 1.80 | 52.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 1.98 | 47.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.95 | 31.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.82 | 1.78 | 52.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.94 | 47.9% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 31/10/26, 13:40. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Millwall 1–0 Derby, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Millwall 12th (18 points), Derby 23rd (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Millwall 4W 3D 5L (19:20), Derby 1W 4D 7L (10:21).
- H2H: 23 matches: Millwall 10W 7D 6L, goals 25–26.
- Absences: Millwall 7, Derby 9.
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Millwall vs Derby: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Millwall vs Derby: who is missing
Millwall
- T. Arconteankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Coburnmuscle injury · will miss the match
- C. De Norremuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Jensenmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Marschallinjury · will miss the match
- M. Servaisnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Luongoknee injury · doubtful
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- E. Cashinnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Clarkecalf injury · will miss the match
- C. Forsythknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Langasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Murkinhamstring injury · will miss the match
- D. Sandersonred card · will miss the match
- C. Taylorinjury · will miss the match
- L. Travisankle injury · will miss the match
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Millwall vs Derby: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Millwall
Home and away
Millwall vs Derby: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Millwall are 12th with 18 points after 13 matches (5W 3D 5L), whereas Derby are 23rd with 7 points (1W 4D 8L).
- Attack and defence. Millwall have scored 1.6 and conceded 1.7 goals per game on average in this competition; Derby average 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Millwall: 4W 3D 5L, goals 19–20; Derby: 1W 4D 7L, goals 10–21.
- Head to head. In their 23 meetings so far, Millwall have 10 wins, Derby have 6 wins and 7 draws have been recorded; the goals stand at 25–26.
What to expect
Millwall should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 1–0 (11.5%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.85), and our probability for it is 52%. We estimate both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Prediction: key points
- Meetings: 23; Millwall 10 wins, 7 draws, Derby 6 wins.
- Meetings between these sides have averaged 2.2 goals.
- Goals scored and conceded in this competition: Millwall 19–20, Derby 10–21.
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 52%.
- Absent: Millwall 7, Derby 9.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 52%, best available odds 1.82). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Millwall are missing: T. Arconte, J. Coburn, C. De Norre, L. Jensen, F. Marschall, M. Servais, M. Luongo. Derby are without: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, D. Sanderson, C. Taylor, L. Travis. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Millwall vs Derby: team stats compared
These values rely on just this season's games, a sample that is still small.
Form in the competition
MillwallWLDLWDerbyLDLLDMillwall vs Derby: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Millwall vs Derby: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Millwall vs Derby?
Our result tip is Millwall to win (odds 1.70), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.85). The safer pick is Millwall or draw (1X).
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
Our probabilities: Millwall to win 57%, a draw 24%, Derby to win 19%.
What time and where is kick-off?
31 October 2026, kick-off at 15:00, at The Den, London. Referee: Anthony Backhouse.
Who will be missing?
Millwall: T. Arconte, J. Coburn, C. De Norre, L. Jensen, F. Marschall, M. Servais, M. Luongo. Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, D. Sanderson, C. Taylor, L. Travis. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 52% (odds 1.85); under 2.5 goals is at 48% (odds 2.05).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 52% probability (odds 1.82).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 1–0 (11.5%); after that come 1–1 (10.9%) and 2–0 (10.4%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
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