Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Southampton meet Bolton on 17 October 2026 · 15:00 at St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton), refereed by Matt Donohue, England. Southampton (66%) are the favourites here. Our tip, result probabilities, missing players and analysis follow.
Southampton vs Bolton: the odds compared
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available odds | 1.48 | 5.25 | 6.62 |
| Market average | 1.42 | 4.90 | 6.25 |
| Lowest odds | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.10 | 84.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 1.40 | 66.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.76 | 33.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.14 | 2.03 | 46.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.55 | 59.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.30 | 40.2% |
Odds collected from several bookmakers and updated 17/10/26, 12:01. They are only a guide and a single operator may offer different prices. Average margin is 6.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Southampton 2–1 Bolton, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Southampton 5th (23 points), Bolton 19th (14 points).
- Absences: Southampton 0, Bolton 0.
Who will win Southampton vs Bolton?
We base this estimate on several bookmakers' odds with the margin taken out. It is no guarantee of the outcome.
Southampton vs Bolton: more markets and betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. If the top available odds are bigger than the fair odds, there is value in the price. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider less than 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Southampton vs Bolton: who is missing
Southampton
- No reported absences
Bolton
- No reported absences
This list may be updated before kick-off.
Southampton vs Bolton: table positions and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 | Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 | Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Southampton
Home and away
Southampton vs Bolton: match preview and analysis
How we arrived at this tip
- Table. In the table, Southampton are 5th with 23 points after 13 matches (8W 3D 2L), whereas Bolton are 19th with 14 points (4W 2D 7L).
What to expect
Southampton should have the edge here, in our view. Our projected score is 2–1, about 3 goals combined, and 2–1 (9.7%) is the single most probable outcome. We think this will be an open match with plenty of goals.
Our tip for goals is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.45), and our probability for it is 66%. We estimate both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Prediction: key points
- We are expecting about 3 goals, and we give over 2.5 goals 66%.
- Absent: Southampton 0, Bolton 0.
Alternative tip: Both sides to score: yes
Alternative pick: Both sides to score: yes (probability 60%, best available odds 1.57). Our projection of about 3 goals is in line with it.
Absences
Southampton are missing: no absences. Bolton are without: no absences. Team news may still change, so check again before kick-off.
Returns calculator
Southampton vs Bolton: questions and answers
What is the best tip for Southampton vs Bolton?
Our result tip is Southampton to win (odds 1.48), and our goals tip is Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.45). The safer pick is Southampton or draw (1X).
Who will win Southampton vs Bolton?
Our probabilities: Southampton to win 66%, a draw 19%, Bolton to win 15%.
What time and where is kick-off?
17 October 2026, kick-off at 15:00, at St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton. Referee: Matt Donohue, England.
Who will be missing?
Southampton: no absences. Bolton: no absences. This list may be updated before kick-off.
Will there be three or more goals?
Our probability for over 2.5 goals is 66% (odds 1.45); under 2.5 goals is at 34% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
We think both teams will score with a 60% probability (odds 1.57).
What is the likeliest correct score?
Our likeliest score is 2–1 (9.7%); after that come 2–0 (9.2%) and 1–1 (8.2%).
How do you work out your predictions?
Our method begins with odds from several bookmakers: we take away the bookmaker margin and average what remains to get probabilities. A Poisson distribution then turns those into expected goals and the most probable scorelines. For context, the page also shows team form, the head to head and missing players. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win.
More predictions
18+ · All betting involves the risk of losing. Treat our predictions as information, not a promise of a win. Please bet sensibly.